Bihar Assembly Election 2020: Rebels threaten to queer pitch for most parties
Most of the rebels are contesting from their respective area of influence riding high on social equations, where caste and religion are the determining factors in Bihar politics
Most of the mainstream parties, who are contesting the upcoming three-phase Bihar assembly polls, have been battling rebellion in their ranks.
Though some parties have taken action against the rebels, it does not appear to have worked as a deterrent.
The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, comprising ally Janata Dal (United) and its minor coalition partner the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has expelled 15 and nine rebels, respectively.
Expulsions are mostly seen in political circles as a routine exercise to send across a terse message, which is often lost on voters.
The growing number of rebels in the electoral fray may turn out to be a decisive factor and is likely to change the course of the poll outcome in the end.
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Most of the rebels are contesting from their respective area of influence riding high on social equations, where caste and religion are the determining factors in fractious Bihar politics.
Usually, in assembly elections, the margin of victory is smaller.
If voter turnout is low, which could well be the case this time around, as the polls are being held amid the unprecedented raging coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak, the margin of error could be even smaller.
In this scenario, a split of votes could tip the balance of power and the formation of the next state government.
The JD (U), which was the main beneficiary following the defections of prominent names from the rival Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), has been the worst-hit.
It is battling a discernible political trend, where the BJP rebels have switched over to the Lok Janshakti Party, which has put up candidates in all the 122 seats in the 243-member Bihar legislative assembly from where the ruling JD (U) is also contesting.
The LJP, which seeks to play the role of a kingmaker in the event of a fractured mandate, has obliged most of the BJP rebels by accommodating them with seats of their choice.
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The LJP, under the watch of its young leader Chirag Paswan (37), has adopted a good cop, bad copy strategy against the NDA government in Bihar.
The regional party is consciously going for the jugular against the JD (U), led by its chief and the outgoing chief minister Nitish Kumar, but is soft on the BJP in a bid to keep its power-sharing option open in a fractured mandate scenario.
The JD (U), which had inducted over a dozen sitting RJD MLAs in the run up to the assembly polls, has been caught unaware of the LJP’s deft move such as snapping seat-sharing ties with the NDA at the last moment and deciding to go solo.
The LJP has rolled out an open invitation to the sulking BJP leaders, who found their traditional seats were distributed to the JD (U).
Chirag’s outfit is likely to throw a spanner in the works in many of the 122 seats, where the JD (U) is the primary contender, and may turn the tide in favour of the Grand Alliance (GA), or mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, the Congress and the Left parties.
The LJP has queered the pitch in around two dozen assembly seats by fielding the BJP rebels.
Rajendra Singh in Dinara, Rameshwar Chaurasia in Sasaram, Ravindra Yadav in Jhajha, Usha Vidyarthi in Paliganj, Indu Devi Kashyap in Jehanabad, Shweta Singh in Sandesh, Anil Kumar in Bikram and Mrinal Shekhar in Amarpur constituency could turn out to be the thorn in the JD (U)’s flesh and snuff out Kumar’s chances to become the CM for the fourth time.
BJP’s Ajay Pratap has switched over to the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) from Jamui, where the saffron party’s Shreyashi Singh, a shooter and the daughter of former member of Parliament late Digvijay Singh, is contesting.
Anil Kumar and Bharat Sharma, who were left high and dry by all the parties, have decided to contest as independents.
The JD (U) has also been hit by the LJP’s poaching.
Some of JD (U) leaders switched over to the LJP and also defected to other parties after they realised that getting a party ticket was few and far between.
Former Congress president Ram Jatan Sinha, who had joined the JD (U) last year, also quit, citing neglect and vowed to work against the party in his areas of influence. However, he has chosen to steer clear of the electoral fray.
“In north Bihar, several rebel candidates are threatening to affect the prospects of the NDA. All eyes are on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies to send across a clear message,” said a BJP leader from Darbhanga.
The JD (U) has to contend with several irritants.
For instance, Dadan Singh ‘Pehelwan’ is contesting as an independent candidate from Dumraon to queer JD (U)’s Anjum Ara poll prospects.
A few others have also moved to the RLSP or are contesting as independents.
The RJD hopes to benefit from the JD (U)-LJP’s internecine battle.
However, the main opposition party in the state is also battling rebels, as several of them have shifted their allegiance to the JD (U), RLSP, Jan Adhikar Party (JAP), which is helmed by former MP Pappu Yadav, and other minor parties.
Many sitting lawmakers, who had won on RJD ticket in 2015, have defected to JD (U) and are pitted against their former party candidates.
“Ticket is what every candidate aspires for and once denied, they look for viable options. The prospect of a triangular or multi-cornered contest has increased this time due to the emergence of new opportunities. No wonder, the ticket aspirants are not hesitant to go against their own party. In case of a hung assembly, they know that each seat will matter. The electoral battle is more intense in what appears will be a low turnout election,” said Professor Ajay Jha, a Patna-based political analyst.
Bihar goes to polls on October 28, November 3 and 7.
The results will be declared on November 10.
