Western disturbance to bring rain, hail in Delhi-NCR from Oct 5–7: IMD

IMD warns of heavy to very heavy precipitation across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and hilly states with peak intensity on Oct 6.

The Capital is expected to get light rain on Sunday, followed by two days of heavier spells of precipitation, thanks to a strong western disturbance that will impact most of northwestern India likely bringing rain, winds and hailstorm across the region, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

Capital may see light rain Oct 5, heavier spells with gusty winds up to 50 kmph till Oct 7; temperatures to dip as cold northwesterlies set in. (Arvind Yadav/HT Photo)

The weather system, according to climate scientists, is likely to kick off the drop in temperature in Delhi from the second week of October, ahead of a gradual winter onset. “We will see a dip in night-time temperature soon after this western disturbance departs as cold northwesterly winds will start blowing from the hills towards the plains. This will provid a chill in the air, particularly at night and in the morning,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet.

The weather system will also affect Delhi-NCR till October 7, according to IMD forecast.

“A few spells of light to moderate rain are likely on both days, accompanied by gusty winds touching up to 50 km/hr,” the IMD forecast stated. Northwest India is set to experience a strong western disturbance between October 4 and 8, bringing intense rainfall, hailstorms, gusty winds and snowfall in the upper mountains, IMD said.

On Thursday, Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 35.7°C, a degree above normal, and a minimum of 25.8°C, three notches above normal. The IMD said the minimum may dip to 22°C by October 8, while the maximum may drop to 31°C with rain. From October 9, a sharper fall is expected as cold northwesterlies dominate.

To be sure, western disturbances in October are not unusual, often linked to a delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. Delhi’s long-period average shows the minimum temperature dips below 20°C around October 13 and to 16.1°C by month’s end. Last year, the minimum dipped below 20°C on October 12.

Independent forecaster Ashwary Tiwari, who runs IndiaMetSky on X, said, “Thunderstorm activity is likely to start across Punjab, northwest Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir from October 5, gradually shifting eastwards from October 6. Models indicate a powerful western disturbance, unusually south. Moisture will primarily be fed by the Arabian Sea, and more thunderstorm activity is expected on October 6 and 7, after which cold winds will start to blow across the plains.”

In its extended outlook, the IMD said high moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal will feed into northwest India between October 5 and 7. “Due to this system along with the confluence of winds and high moisture, there is a possibility of heavy to very heavy precipitation with hailstorms over northwest India during the same period with peak intensity on October 6, 2025,” the IMD said.

Krishna Mishra, senior scientist at IMD’s Regional Weather Forecasting Centre, New Delhi, said, “Heavy to very heavy rainfall spells are likely on both October 5 and 6 – in Punjab, Haryana, northern Rajasthan and the hilly states. Peak intensity is expected on both 5 and 6 October. Hailstorm probability also exists for the same dates, with snowfall expected only in the upper reaches, as it is October.”

Private forecaster Skymet also warned of severe activity. Mahesh Palawat, its vice president, said, “There will be light to moderate rain with one or two intense spells over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, North Rajasthan and UP on October 6 and 7. There may be ‘very heavy’ rain in the hills and possible snow in the upper reaches of the Western Himalayas. Mudslides are also possible.” He added that westerly to northwesterly winds would start blowing from October 9, bringing a dip in night temperatures.