A bitter irony: Thackerays seek Muslim support to survive
The Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance cannot win more than 60-70 seats, even if solidly backed by the Marathi-speaking population, party insiders say. Hence, wooing another demographic is the only alternative
MUMBAI: Three decades after the Shiv Sena was accused of stoking communal riots in Mumbai, the Thackerays are turning to the Muslim community to bolster their poll prospects in their fight for political survival in Mumbai.
In 1992, the Sena was accused of being involved in the post-Babri Masjid demolition riots, and another round of rioting in 1993. Despite the intense heat he faced, Sena founder Bal Thackeray proudly said the party had “protected Hindus” when communal clashes broke out in Mumbai.
Now Thackeray’s heirs – his son Uddhav and nephew Raj – are looking at ways to secure the Muslim vote. If the Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray wins the BMC elections, it will be a big boost for Thackeray in a city that has traditionally been a stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the contribution of Muslim and Dalit voters was significant as the Sena (UBT) won half the seats in Mumbai and the opposition Mumbai Vikas Aghadi (MVA) outperformed the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance.
The BJP has since dominated the 2024 assembly elections and swept the recent municipal council elections in the state. In the January 15 elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the Sena (UBT) is going all out to revive the Marathi-Dalit-Muslim combination as it fears Gujarati, Marwari and North Indian voters will back the BJP-Shiv Shiv Sena alliance.
The Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance cannot win more than 60-70 seats, even if solidly backed by the Marathi-speaking population, party insiders say. Hence, wooing another demographic is the only alternative.
A senior Sena (UBT) leader said the party is looking at 30-35 seats where Muslim voters are in large numbers or can tilt the balance in a close contest. Its strategy is to field more Muslim candidates.
In 2017, two Muslim corporators were elected on Shiv Sena tickets. In last year’s assembly election, Uddhav Thackeray fielded Haroon Khan, a local functionary, in Versova. He defeated two-time MLA and BJP candidate Bharati Lavhekar.
“Typically, we field three to four Muslim candidates in civic polls in areas where Muslim voters are in significant numbers, and if we think we can win the seat. This time, we are focussing on seats in Muslim-dominated areas,” said a senior Shiv Sena (UBT) legislator. “After the support from minority voters in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, we believe we can get more minority candidates elected from these areas.”
The Sena (UBT) leader was referring to Muslim-dominated pockets such as Byculla-Nagpada, Mahim-Bandra, Govandi-Mankhurd, Andheri-Jogeshwari, Malad-Malvani and Dharavi.
“Our strategy is also aimed at areas with a mixed population, where an extra chunk of Dalit and minority votes can tilt the balance our way in a close contest with the BJP or Shiv Sena,” added the legislator.
In line with this, on Friday, Uddhav Thackeray inducted Changez Multani, a two-time corporator from Jogeshwari, into the party. On Saturday, Rehana Gafoor Shaikh, a retired assistant commissioner of police, joined the Sena (UBT) in Thackeray’s presence.
Earlier, despite opposition from a few local leaders, Thackeray welcomed Rashid Mamu, a minority leader from Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar. Party leaders said more Muslim faces would be inducted soon.
“It is clear that Thackeray is banking on the voting pattern seen in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections. The civic polls will also see the Sena (UBT) receiving support from the minority community as they would not want the BJP to rule the city,” said Sarfaraz Arju, editor of Hindustan Daily, a Mumbai-based Urdu newspaper.
However, it may not be quite as straightforward for Thackeray. Arju feels the minority vote will be distributed between the Congress, Samajwadi Party, AIMIM and Ajit Pawar led NCP – each of them contesting separately.
“In the last civic polls, most of the 27 Muslims corporators were from the Congress, Samajwadi Party and AIMIM. However, minority voters would want to ensure that Mahayuti candidates are defeated. As such, they are likely to support the Thackerays if other parties cannot defeat the ruling parties,” Arju added.
A senior MNS leader said even their party is looking at fielding a few Muslim candidates.
The BJP, which is calling the Thackerays’ strategy “appeasement politics”, will try to split the Sena (UBT)’s Marathi voter base as the traditional Sena voter is tilted towards Hindutva. If that happens, the extra minority votes will make little difference.
“It is unfortunate to see the son of the late Sena founder resorting to appeasement politics for votes,” said chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, taking aim at Thackeray. Going one step further, the BJP’s Mumbai chief Ameet Satam has remarked that Mumbai will have a Muslim mayor if the Sena (UBT) wins power in the BMC elections.
Sena (UBT) deputy leader and former mayor Kishori Pednekar shot back, “If the BJP claims we are engaging in appeasement politics, what about them wooing the Gujarati community for votes? Or pitting North Indians against us? The fact is that minority communities such as Muslims and Christians saw how Uddhavji worked as chief minister during the Covid pandemic and have begun supporting him,” she said.
“Speaking of Balasaheb (Thackeray), let me remind them that he had always said he was not against Muslims but only pro-Pakistani Muslims,” she said.
The Shiv Sena, historically accused of inciting communal riots, is now seeking Muslim votes to enhance its electoral chances in Mumbai, particularly for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections. Uddhav Thackeray's faction aims to revive the Marathi-Dalit-Muslim coalition, focusing on Muslim-majority areas and fielding more Muslim candidates, despite challenges from rival parties and accusations of "appeasement politics." The party's shift reflects a strategic response to changing demographics and electoral dynamics.