Uddhav’s bete noire Rane tries to wrest Sena stronghold Konkan from embattled leader

Outside the Mumbai-Thane belt and some parts of Marathwada, it was Konkan that stood behind the Bal Thackeray-founded party

RATNAGIRI: Nitin Salvi runs a small garment business, for which he shuffles between Mumbai and Kudal in Sindhudurg district. Many of his relatives are settled in Mumbai and used to be loyal voters of the undivided Shiv Sena. In this election, he is on the horns of a dilemma: he will have to pick between Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Vinayak Raut, who is the sitting MP, and union minister Narayan Rane from the BJP.

Policemen held flag march on the street for the upcoming Lok Sabha Election at Sakhari Nate in Ratnagiri, India, on Thursday, April 25, 2024. (Photo by Anshuman Poyrekar/ Hindustan Times) (Hindustan Times)

“It was easy in the last two elections,” said Salvi. “We chose Raut because he was from the Shiv Sena and was contesting against Nilesh Rane. This time, however, Ranesaheb himself is contesting. He has done work in our area and says it is his last election. At the same time, we have an emotional connection with the Shiv Sena.”

The coastal Konkan region has been a Shiv Sena stronghold for over three decades. Outside the Mumbai-Thane belt and some parts of Marathwada, it was Konkan that stood behind the Bal Thackeray-founded party which used the ‘sons of the soil’ plank to build its political base. Among those who benefitted from the party’s stand were Konkani migrants who moved to Mumbai in search of employment.

Over the years, the bond between Bal Thackeray and the people of Konkan strengthened. Now, with the party split and fighting a tough battle to keep it alive, Uddhav Thackeray is banking on Konkan for support. It is no coincidence that his party is contesting five out of six constituencies in the Konkan region, the most-talked-about battle being the one between his sitting MP Vinayak Raut and Narayan Rane. Rane was the first rebel against Thackeray and to date remains his most vocal critic.

Rane was one of the Sena leaders who built the base for the party in the coastal region. In the 1990 and 1995 assembly elections, the majority of Konkan stood by the Sena, and leaders like Rane played an important role in this. When the Shiv Sena-BJP government came to power in 1995, its emphasis on infrastructure-building during the tenures of Manohar Joshi and later Rane turned out to be factors that changed the face of Konkan, especially the three districts of Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg and Raigad.

Rane quit the party, following a power tussle with Uddhav Thackeray, joined the Congress in 2005, left to form his own outfit and ultimately joined the BJP in 2018. His control over the Lok Sabha constituency kept changing. In 2009, his elder son Nilesh won the elections but lost in 2014 and 2019 to the Sena’s Vinayak Raut.

This is Rane’s first Lok Sabha election. At 72, he was not keen to contest and would have preferred a second Rajya Sabha term but the BJP’s surveys showed that he had a better chance of winning than other probable candidates. And so Rane it was.

The constituency

Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg constituency comprises half of Ratnagiri and the whole of Sindhudurg district. On paper, Rane’s position looks stronger. Four out of six assembly segments under the constituency are with the ruling parties: Kankavli (BJP), Ratnagiri and Sawantwadi (Shiv Sena) and Chiplun (Ajit Pawar-led NCP). The remaining two, Rajapur and Kudal, are with the Shiv Sena (UBT). The Rane clan has significant influence in Sindhudurg district.

The BJP took a while to decide on Rane’s candidature but even before his name was announced, Rane had begun touring the constituency. His challenge will be to ensure that the BJP allies, especially the Shiv Sena which has two MLAs, work for him. The BJP has deputed public works minister Ravindra Chavan to streamline the party’s campaign and ensure that the alliance partners work in tandem for Rane’s victory.

For Rane’s opponent, Vinayak Raut, 70, the route to a third term is paved with difficulties. His party is split, its popular bow-and-arrow election symbol (which is important in rural areas) is gone and he faces a serious resource crunch. Several areas are bereft of a network of Shiv Sena (UBT) workers.

Raut, however, is confident of his victory. “Some people have left for power but there is no dent in our support base,” he said.

Rane too exuded confidence, saying, “I have been travelling in the constituency for the past two weeks. The response I got was encouraging. I am confident that I will win with a bigger margin than in the 2019 elections.”

The issues

In keeping with its countrywide narrative, the BJP has made the Konkan election about PM Modi’s third term and Hindutva. Rane has been targeting Raut, calling him an inefficient MP. The Sena (UBT) campaign has been highlighting the “ injustice meted out to Maharashtra”, a reiteration of the accusation that the Modi government took away investment from Maharashtra to Gujarat. There is also a strong appeal to vote against “the traitors and their backers” (BJP) who split the Shiv Sena founded by Bal Thackeray.

Inflation is also an issue. “People like us are feeling the pinch,” said Kiran Gaonkar, a rickshaw driver. “If you ask me, that should be the top issue and not a temple or a split in the party.”

Konkan’s economy runs mostly on horticulture—mango and cashew are important crops—some industries in Ratnagiri and the money sent back by those employed outside the region. In Rajapur, the opposition to the Jaitapur nuclear power project as well the proposed oil refinery in Nanar and later Barsu is strong, as most locals have mango orchards. The famous alphonso mango makes for profitable business, and they are worried about the threat of pollution.

The contest

It is more or less clear that the contest will be close. Raut initially had an edge, as the ruling alliance was undecided about its candidate. He began travelling across the constituency early and had already covered a significant chunk by the time Rane came in. Rane, however, is a seasoned politician and knows how to step up his campaign in a short time. Besides, he has the BJP’s efficient poll machinery to fall back on.

“Had it been any other candidate, it would not have been difficult for Raut to win,” said Manoj Muley, a Ratnagiri-based journalist. “But Rane has some goodwill in the entire Konkan and will prove a strong opponent. The churn that has happened in the past couple of years will also be important. The outcome of the election depends on whether the loss that has been caused by the Sena and NCP splits is compensated by the Congress and Pawar. But they are barely present.”

Muley added that the sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray could play a significant role. “The Shiv Sena’s traditional voter is not happy with the way the party was split. It remains to be seen if they rally behind Raut,” he said.

A senior Thackeray faction leader also said that the party had a dearth of manpower and resources. “The resource crunch could affect Raut,” he said. “Resourceful politicians like the Samant brothers leaving the Sena affected the party although hardcore Sena workers rarely depended on resources in the past.”

Sympathy for Thackeray is not the only factor worrying Rane. Controversies have dented his popularity over the years. He has been accused of suppressing opponents. His sons, former MP Nilesh and BJP MLA Nitesh too, have their share of controversies, which has not exactly added to the popularity of the Rane clan.

The general impression is that Rane will have the upper hand in Sindhudurg while Raut will in Ratnagiri. How much each leader gains from the opposite district will decide who wins. That is why the BJP has concentrated on Ratnagiri district and Rane himself mostly camps in Ratnagiri city. Raut, on the other hand, is focussing on reaching Sena voters, invoking the old ties between the party and the Konkani manoos, who has always been the backbone of the Sena in Mumbai.