Nuapada bypoll: The first election in Odisha after BJD’s fall

The Nuapada bypoll may measure whether Odisha’s political shift last year was a genuine transformation or a temporary aberration

An assembly bypoll in western Odisha district of Nuapada, scheduled for November 11, may measure whether Odisha’s seismic political shift last year was a genuine transformation or a temporary aberration as it is the first election since Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) fortress crumbled after 24 years of uninterrupted dominion in the 2024 polls.

The Nuapada bypoll has spawned a triangular contest among BJP, BJD and the Congress. (Representational image)

The Nuapada seat fell vacant following the death of Rajendra Dholakia, a four-time legislator and former minister whose political longevity reflected the BJD’s stranglehold on this constituency. In the 2024 assembly election, Dholakia had secured victory with a comfortable margin.

What makes Nuapada compelling is not merely its status as the electoral test of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government after it came to power in June last year, but the triangular contest it has spawned.

Fourteen candidates officially remain in the fray after the withdrawal deadline passed, but the real contest revolves around three– each representing a distinct narrative of Odisha’s evolving politics.

The BJP’s attempt to consolidate its recent gains, the BJD’s struggle to remain relevant, the Congress’s desperate bid for resurrection—all three narratives converge here.

The BJP, now in power both in Bhubaneswar and New Delhi, has got Jay Dholakia—the son of the late MLA Rajendra Dholakia—to switch allegiances and contest on a saffron ticket to appropriate sympathy votes. “The BJP understands that in constituencies like Nuapada where personal relationships often trump ideological commitments, the son inheriting the father’s mantle carries enormous psychological weight,” said political analyst SP Dash.

The party’s confidence is palpable. It has deployed 8 of its ministers in as many zones while displaying the characteristic swagger of a government that believes momentum remains on its side. However, not many are willing to believe that the BJP’s strength in urban Odisha and among non-tribal communities automatically translates to the hinterlands of Nuapada, where different equations apply, where caste and tribal identities intersect with memories of neglect and promises repeatedly broken.

The outcome of Nuapada bypoll will indicate whether the BJP can translate state-level victory into grassroots dominance.

On the other hand, BJD chief Naveen Patnaik on Monday hit the road for the first time after losing the Assembly polls last year when he started campaigning in Nuapada.

Having lost power for the first time since its formation, the BJD faces an existential question: can it remain relevant as an opposition force, or will it fade into political irrelevance like so many regional parties before it? Nuapada represents its first opportunity to answer that question definitively.

The BJD has fielded Snehangini Chhuria, a former minister from Bargarh, after losing its initial candidate to BJP’s recruitment drive. Chhuria brings ministerial experience and the residual goodwill that the Naveen Patnaik administration still commands among sections of Odisha’s population. The BJD’s strategy appears to rest on reminding voters of governance delivered, of schemes implemented, of stability that the new BJP government has yet to establish convincingly.

Meanwhile, the Congress, under its new state president Bhakta Charan Das, has attempted to reinvent itself as Odisha’s genuine opposition, raising issues of women’s safety and governance failures. The Congress candidate, Ghasiram Majhi, carries his own complicated history with the party. A tribal leader who contested the 2024 elections as an independent after being denied a Congress ticket, Majhi finished second, garnering more votes than the official Congress candidate—the then state party president himself. His performance was a humiliation for the party establishment but demonstrated his personal appeal among tribal voters who form a substantial portion of Nuapada’s electorate.

Now welcomed back into the fold and given the official nomination, many are waiting to see if Majhi can convert his previous showing into victory. More importantly, can the Congress leverage this potential win into broader revival across Odisha?