What are the chances of Virat Kohli breaking Sachin Tendulkar's record of most ODI runs? How close can he get?

Virat Kohli has at most 23 matches left before potentially retiring after the 2027 WC.

Virat Kohli walked in to bat in Sydney with the burden of two consecutive ducks and with uncertainty about his cricketing future. However, when he walked out, he had ensured a fine victory for India, scoring a fluent 74 off 81 deliveries and placing himself second on the list of highest run-scorers in ODIs.

Virat Kohli celebrates his half-century during the third One-Day International.(PTI)

Notably, Kohli now has 14,255 runs under his belt, just behind Sachin Tendulkar’s 18,426. The record seems a long distance away; however, the question will rise in the minds of common Kohli fans - Can Kohli reach the summit of ODI runs?

Let us examine the probabilities in detail -

Where the numbers stand now

• Kohli: Now second in ODIs in terms of runs scored after passing Sangakkara during the SCG ODI.
• Tendulkar: 18,426 runs - the highest ever.
• Kohli needs 4,172 runs to surpass Tendulkar and be at the top of this list.

Our prediction model

Fixtures left: Considering India plays in the final of WC 2027 and that turns out to be the last match of Kohli’s career, we can say that he has 23 more matches left.

• 12 ODIs from the currently announced schedule through 2026.
• 11 matches at the 2027 World Cup, if India reaches the final.

Form: We have considered three runs per innings production bands for Kohli over those 23 matches.

• Conservative: 40 runs per innings - 920 runs
• Career standard: 55-58 runs per innings - 1,265 to 1,335 runs
• Peak form: more than 60 runs per innings with 1 or 2 big centuries - 1,350 to 1,500 runs

Simulation: Thousands of season-tails using the above assumptions are done. The share of outcomes where he goes past Sachin clusters around 1%.

How close can Kohli get?

Even on the bullish lane, Kohli adds around 1.5k runs to his tally. That takes his tally to around 16,000 ODI runs. This also stays an elite career, and if he gets past the 15k and 16k marks, he will only be the second batter to do so in the history of the game. But if indeed the 2027 WC is his last, then it is improbable for him to get past Tendulkar.