In Myanmar, a flawed election

The junta-led elections amidst civil war and a ban on Suu Kyi’s party face a legitimacy crisis

The three-phase elections that the Tatmadaw (the armed forces) announced to elect a civilian government in Myanmar began on Sunday. But with the principal political group in that country, the National League for Democracy (NLD), and its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, banned from electoral politics, the election has a farcical ring to it. In fact, the United Nations and many Western capitals have questioned the credibility of the elections. Importantly, the junta has little control over large parts of Myanmar, which are under the control of local militias. The junta expects a civilian government, which it can control from the barracks, to negotiate a way out of sanctions that have crippled the Myanmar economy. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party is expected to win the election.

The junta expects a civilian government, which it can control from the barracks, to negotiate a way out of sanctions that have crippled the Myanmar economy. (Reuters)

There are at least two takeaways from Myanmar’s recent political history. One, no unelected government can stay in office for too long and expect to gain legitimacy or successfully administer people who have tasted democracy. Two, elections have to be free and fair to find public endorsement. The junta in Myanmar had disbanded the NLD in 2021, a year after it won the popular mandate. The NLD, drawing on Suu Kyi’s popularity, a result of her family legacy and her own principled political life that included long years of incarceration, was the glue that held together Myanmar’s complex and ethnically diverse polity. For sure, the NLD’s policies towards the Rohingya minority diminished Suu Kyi’s moral authority in the West, but she commanded trust and respect at home. In her absence, Myanmar slid into anarchy, and the strong-arm tactics of the junta only revived the ethnic fault lines, leading to civil war and general misery. The Tatmadaw’s disastrous attempt to control democracy has lessons for the mandarins in Dhaka, now threatened by mobocracy.

India has preferred to watch the developments in Myanmar from the sidelines — Suu Kyi lived in exile in India for many years, and New Delhi has worked to build ties with the Tatmadaw, seen as close to China — despite its impact in the northeastern states. The porous border in Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram, with people across borders sharing ethnic ties, has led to a refugee influx into India. A refugee crisis is in the making in Mizoram, whereas the ethnic conflict in Manipur has a cross-border angle. India has supported a “democratic transition” in Myanmar and underlined the holding of fair elections with full political participation. The poll outcome will be closely watched in New Delhi.