The rumble in Bihar NDA

Chirag Paswan’s remarks on law and order in Bihar are politically significant

The late Ramvilas Paswan, founder of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), used to be described as the weathervane of Indian politics. His political shifts reflected changes in voter preferences, it was said. Has Chirag Paswan, chief of Paswan’s party and an important member of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), inherited his father’s political intelligence as well, that he is sensing a rumble in Bihar ahead of the assembly polls and wants to stay clear of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar?

The perception that law and order in Bihar has deteriorated is gaining ground — which is why Chirag Paswan’s remarks will hurt the NDA, and particularly, the JD(U) (HT Photo)

On Sunday, Chirag Paswan said, “I feel sad that I am supporting a government where crime has become rampant.” He also added that “the administration has a hand in it, or it is trying to cover up these incidents, or it has become completely ineffective”. The Union minister spoke against the backdrop of a series of violent crimes in Bihar, including multiple high-profile murders in Patna. On Thursday, a young woman who fainted while attending a recruitment for home guards in Bodh Gaya was allegedly gang-raped inside the ambulance that was ferrying her to a hospital. Nitish Kumar’s party, the Janata Dal (United), has claimed that the situation is not as bad as critics make it out to be. But the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data indicate that the number of crimes in Bihar rose by 78% between 2015 and 2022 (the last year for which NCRB data is available), when it had increased by 24% at the national level. Bihar was among the 10 worst states in terms of overall cases of crimes from 2020 to 2022, with its rank rising from ninth in 2020 to seventh in 2022. To be sure, absolute numbers are high also because Bihar is a large state — it is the third most populous state in India (Census 2011).

The perception that law and order in Bihar has deteriorated is gaining ground — which is why Chirag Paswan’s remarks will hurt the NDA, and particularly, the JD(U). One, law and order has been a key campaign issue of Nitish Kumar, who once went by the moniker, Sushasan (good governance) Babu. The NDA has contrasted Nitish Kumar’s tenure with the record of Lalu Prasad and his wife, Rabri Devi, in office (1990-2005), which it describes as jungle raj. Two, Nitish, after 20 years in office, is battling anti-incumbency and any dissonance in the NDA will hurt his prospects. The NDA won in 2020 with the narrowest of leads — its vote share was just 0.03% more than that of its rival, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. More importantly, the LJP, which contested on its own, polled over 5% votes, and targeted the JD(U), which lost 28 seats. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the overall law and order situation in Bihar under Nitish Kumar has improved, but electoral politics is as much influenced by perceptions as it is by tactics and social alliances. Chirag Paswan, who has been open about his ambitions in Bihar politics, may have spotted an undercurrent that the JD(U) missed.