Bihar assembly election: The state where caste bests religion
As the state stares at another potential coalition, religious mobilisation may not work in a political zone long dominated by the varna system
There is a reason why Bihar remains the only Hindi belt state in India that has stayed clear of a full-blooded Hindutva embrace. Why? The belief in establishing Hindu hegemony has a very potent rival in the caste system.
That Bihar's politics is heavily influenced by caste, is to understate a point. Political parties, both national, regional and local, have strong caste backing. In a state where caste has always held the upper hand vis a vis Hindutva, coalition governments have been the norm in the better part of the last four decades, except for a brief spell in the mid-1990s in the heyday of Lalu Yadav and Janata Dal.
“This time is not going to be different. Caste is the single-most important factor, and it will decide in favour of yet another coalition government,” predicts political analyst SK Chaudhury, former principal of the famous Patna College.
The 243-seat Bihar assembly will go to the polls in two phases, on November 6 and 11, with counting of votes on November 14.
Chaudhury adds: "The importance of caste can be gauged from the fact that chief minister Nitish Kumar has conducted a caste survey, and other political parties have backed the move.”
The 2022 Bihar Caste-Based Survey was notified by the state government in June 2022. The survey was conducted in two phases, house listing and caste and economic enumeration. The data collection for the survey began on January 7, 2023 and was released on October 2, 2023.
While caste in any Indian election can scarcely be undermined, in Bihar it acquires a logic of its own.
A bird eye’s view of the powerful political parties and their caste bases:
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, traditionally draws a large base from the Yadav community and other backward classes, but also seeks broader support from minorities and Muslims.
Its principal opponent Janata Dal (United), or JDU, primarily relies on a coalition of Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Kurmis, and other non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The party's strategy has been to consolidate support from these groups to challenge the dominance of other social arithmetic in Bihar.
The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), or LJP (RV), is mainly focussed on representing the interests of specific Dalit sub-castes, particularly the Paswan (Dusadh) community.
The BJP strategy has been to build a coalition that includes consolidating the support of a wide range of non-Yadav OBC and other Hindu communities, referred to by some as "Mandal 2.0", a motley mix of smaller backward castes.
The Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), founded by former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, primarily draws its support from the Mahadalit community, to which he belongs. The HAM(S) was created to represent the interests of the Mahadalits in Bihar, a group that includes the Musahar caste of which Manjhi is a member. This community is a significant voting bloc, comprising about 16% of the electorate in Bihar.
The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) focuses its politics on mobilizing the Nishad community and its sub-castes, with the aim of creating a significant political force. The party's founder, Mukesh Sahani, is a prominent leader from the Nishad or the Mallah community, fishing castes that have witnessed strong political mobilization during the great EBC push in the state.
Bihar is a riverine state because of its many rivers, particularly the Ganga and its tributaries, Gandak, Kosi, and Sone. These rivers crisscross the state, defining its drainage pattern and shaping its landscape.
Led by Upendra Kushwaha, the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), an NDA partner, is primarily based on the support of the non-Yadav OBC communities, especially its leader's Kushwaha caste. The party's focus on social justice also extends to the EBCs, Dalits, and Pasmanda or backward Muslims.
Other political players, of relatively smaller margins, include the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which though not as dominant in Bihar as in Uttar Pradesh, claims to represent the interests of Dalits, Scheduled Tribes, OBCs and minorities.
In other words, there is scarcely a player, national or regional, who is not in the fray in Bihar. From Nitish Kumar’s ruling JDU and the BJP to the RJD and the Congress; from the LJP to Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj and the HAM.
Add to it contestants from parties as varied as the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) to the Vikas-sheel Insan party (VIP).
The latest to throw their hat in the ring is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
Predictably, most have caste and community backing.
What makes the Bihar battle tantalising is the even sharing of the vote bank. The caste matrix makes it impossible for a party to win on its own and allies are crucial to everyone's game plans. To form a government in Bihar, a party or coalition needs to secure a simple majority of 122 seats in the 243-member Legislative Assembly.
This caste-based political mobilization reveals the difficulties that come in the way of religious polarization.
In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, RJD topped with 75 seats, followed closely by the BJP at 74, JDU 43, Congress at 19, CPI(ML)-L with 12, the AIMIM with 5, and HAM and VIP with 4 seats each, demonstrating how difficult it is for a single party to form a government.
Figures from Bihar’s chief electoral officer throw further light. While the BJP vote in the 2020 assembly elections stood at over 15%, JDU has little over 20%, while the RJD is the biggest at less than 24% of the total electorate. LJP's vote share stands at over 11%, while the Congress, expected to be a much-improved player in 2025, clocked over 6% votes.
The state's politics are primarily shaped by the long-running competition between two major coalitions, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan, but it is hardly a surprise that most of them – if not all – have very strong caste roots.
Analyst Prabhat Singh believes that EBCs, comprising roughly about 36% of Bihar’s population of more than 130 million diverse coalition of 112 sub-castes, will principally impact the elections.
While agreeing that caste will impact the Bihar assembly elections, Singh adds a caveat. “The JDU has over the years built a strong cadre, so has the BJP, now. These committed cadres could overlook caste and vote differently. It can’t be ruled out.”
If that happens, it could mark a significant shift in Bihar’s political kaleidoscope.
