A watershed moment in Europe for Pep Guardiola
There are moments in sport that are bigger than a single event or achievement for the symbolism they hold and the shackles they break
There are moments in sport that are bigger than a single event or achievement for the symbolism they hold and the shackles they break. This week’s dismantling by Manchester City of Real Madrid to enter the finals of the Uefa Champions League felt like such a moment. On the one hand, Real Madrid epitomised a team that somehow found ways to win the biggest prize in European football. On the other, City and its manager Pep Guardiola, for all the exciting football they showcased, had a reel of heartbreaking exits.
In 2009, at the age of 38 years and 129 days, Guardiola became the youngest manager to win the Champions League with Barcelona. He won a second title in 2011, also with the same club. The general expectation was that his Champions League medals would increase over time. Instead, it turned into a block, putting a “but” on his otherwise considerable accomplishments. This week, Guardiola might have taken a big step to erasing that rider—and paving his way to greater Champions League heights, possibly the summit. Of course, Inter Milan and Simone Inzaghi may have something to say about that.
Managerial Summit
While the Champions League has been running since 1955-56, it was reformatted and rebranded in 1992-93. The 30 championships held since have been won by 12 clubs and 18 managers. The manager with the most titles is Carlo Ancelotti, who also managed the Real Madrid side beaten by City this week. Following Ancelotti is Zinedine Zidane, who won three on the trot with Real Madrid from 2015-16 to 2017-18.
Then, there are six managers with two titles, notably Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola. For a manager who has only managed superclubs in their prime for 14 seasons now, Guardiola’s return falls below expectations. Guardiola’s wins were defined by Barcelona being a dominant side. In those two title-winning years, Barcelona averaged 2.41 points per game (out of 3) in the Spanish league — the highest in this set. In contrast, teams with a lower average points per game have won the Champions League, underscoring its big-match nature.
[Chart 1]
English Summer, European Winter
In a relatively short managerial career, spanning 14 seasons now, Guardiola has only managed superclubs: four seasons at Barcelona, three at Bayern Munich, and he is now in his seventh year at Manchester City. Domestically, the count reads 10 league titles (11, assuming City wins the English Premier League this year as well), two second-placed finishes, and one third-place finish. The average points per game by Guardiola’s sides in their domestic league mostly tops what the most-decorated managers in the Champions League accomplished.
That’s why Guardiola not winning a Champions League since 2010-11 sits uncomfortably with the rest of his managerial records. Since leaving Barcelona, in the Champions League his sides have lost in one final, four semi-finals, three quarter-finals, and one Round of 16. City’s losses have been to Monaco, Liverpool, Tottenham, Lyon, Chelsea, and Real Madrid.
[Chart 2]
Treble in Sight
The Champions League has been a puzzle that has been maddening for Guardiola himself. He’s crafted sides that play a brand of football that is fizzy and fluid, high on retaining possession and geometrical in the way they use spaces. All these traits found rich expression in the Real Madrid decimation. That it came against Real made it more momentous and felt like the passing of a baton.
Guardiola rated it “the highest [win], considering the opponent”. In the finals, City play Inter Milan, a side that sits third in the Italian league and which has had a relatively easier draw in the road to the Champions League finals. City are favored to win. Could this be the trophy that unshackles Guardiola and helps him make up for the many missed opportunities in Europe? City are also in line to complete a treble—Champions League, domestic league and the main domestic cup. Only six sides have done it since 1993, and only Manchester United in the English Premier League.
[Chart 3]
Champions League Summit
Guardiola’s contract with City runs for two more years. In England, they remain a peerless side, looking good for their third title on the trot. This one has not been easy as they started slow and trailed Arsenal for the most part. But when the crunch time came, they have shown a big-match mentality. Can they take that mindset and stamp it on the Champions League — a shorter and more “in the now” format — for those two years under Guardiola, maybe beyond?
In the bar that Guardiola has set himself for his managerial choices, titles are the objective. He would like to match and better Ancelotti. There’s another Champions League statistic that looks well within reach: of the maximum number of Champions League matches played. Guardiola sits fourth, after Ancelotti, Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger. Another three to four high-flying seasons could push him to the summit. This week provided impetus for that ambition, a win on 11 June at Istanbul could stoke that further.
[Chart 4]
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