HT@Belem: No fossil fuel phase-out road map, COP30 text has elements on finance
The COP30 text does not mention a fossil fuel phase-out road map, which was a huge red line for many developing countries
Early on Friday, around 3am (local time), a set of what could be the final Belem package at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), once adopted, and the cover text was uploaded on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change website. The fire on Thursday at the COP30 venue did not dampen the spirit of Mutirão, a Portuguese term for collective effort and the official theme for COP30. Negotiators and ministers returned to the meeting rooms around 9pm.
The text is without brackets, indicating that this is the final iteration. Most importantly, it does not mention a fossil fuel phase-out road map, which was a huge red line for many developing countries. Instead, it articulates the likelihood of a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement. It reiterates the resolve to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, both the magnitude and the duration of any temperature overshoot, and to close adaptation gaps.
The text celebrates 10 years of the agreement and strongly reaffirms its commitment to multilateralism and the principles and provisions of the pact. It resolves to remain united in the pursuit of efforts to achieve the purpose and long-term goals of the agreement to deliver climate action and support for people and the planet.
The text captures the global context of historical emissions and says that the carbon budget consistent with achieving the agreement temperature goal is now small and being rapidly depleted. It acknowledges that historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four-fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
The text notes that, despite progress, global greenhouse gas emissions trajectories are not yet in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal, and that there is a rapidly narrowing window for raising ambition and implementing existing commitments to achieve it. It recognises that limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
The text recalls the pre-2020 gaps in both the mitigation ambition and implementation of developed country parties. It notes that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had previously indicated that developed countries must reduce emissions by 25-40% below the 1990 level by 2020, which was not achieved.
Finance
The cover text, or what the COP30 Presidency calls the “Mutirao Decision”, calls for uniting humanity in a global mobilisation against climate change. It cites the Presidency’s proposal to establish a two-year work programme on climate finance, including on Article 9 paragraph 1 in the context of Article 9 as a whole. Implementation of Article 9.1, a legal obligation requiring developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries for climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, was one of the most important asks of developing countries, especially India.
The text reaffirms that developed country parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing countries with respect to both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing obligations. It says other parties are encouraged to provide or continue to provide such support voluntarily, a reference to obligations under Article 9.1.
The text reaffirms the long-term goal of making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. “Reaffirms the call on all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.”
The text calls for efforts to triple adaptation finance compared to 2025 levels by 2030, and urges developed countries to increase the trajectory of their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing nations.
Trade
The text asks the parties to cooperate to promote a supportive and open international economic system that would lead to sustainable economic growth and development in all parties, particularly developing countries, enabling them to better address the problems of climate change. It reaffirms that measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.
Developing countries, G77+China, and the Like-Minded Developing Countries, sought to counter unilateral trade measures (UTMs) such as Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. China and India jointly opposed UTMs, arguing they are trade-restrictive, unilateral, and incompatible with equity. India frames UTMs as barriers that hurt developing countries.
Council on Energy, Environment and Water Senior Fellow Vaibhav Chaturvedi said the developed world has yet again torpedoed the effort of the developing world to include UTMs in the cover text. “The language has been flipped to say that unilateral ‘climate’ measures should not arbitrarily restrict trade.”
Chaturvedi said the play on words is a smart compromise. “The EU continues to hold this as a red line. Such unilateral trade measures will now be discussed within the framing of an ‘open and supportive’ international economic system, though one is not sure what is so supportive about such unilateral trade measures.”
