Keeping up with UP: Mayawati may have to do more than rally to shed ‘BJP B’ tag
Mayawati's rally stirred excitement amid supporters but raised doubts about her BSP revival plans, as she faces challenges from rival parties, changing dynamics
Her supporters came in droves, cheered her endlessly but returned home uncertain about her plan to finally resurrect the BSP.
Mayawati’s one message that excited the rallyists was her appeal to support the party’s young national convenor Akash Anand just as they had supported her.
Akash Anand has also ‘matured’, and did not call the BJP names. Describing him as politically immature, Mayawati had earlier removed him as her successor after he had called the Yogi government a terrorist government. He chose his words carefully in his brief speech on October 9 rally. Dalits see in him the future of the BSP and a counter to Chandrashekhar Azad of the Bhim Army, the emerging Dalit leader in the state.
In the words of Banaras Hindu University professor and Dalit activist MP Ahirwar there was loud applause and slogan-shouting when she mentioned Akash Anand’s name. One question, however, that continues to haunt BSP supporters is her commendation of chief minister Yogi Adityanath for the upkeep of memorials.
Mayawati’s consistent silence over their emotive issue of Constitution and quota, the alleged increased atrocities on Dalits and sparing the BJP while fiercely attacking the Opposition had triggered public perception of the party as the “BJP’s B team.” They recalled how Kanshi Ram used to target all in one vein — the BJP, Congress and the Samajwadi Party.
Ashok Bharti, chairman of National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi organisations (NACDAOR), says, “The October 9 rally was indeed a great effort to make a comeback. However, now when Dalits are trying to come out from their self-exclusionary mode, Mayawat’s instance of attacking everyone does not help them. She could have used this rally to build bridges with the forces opposing the right-wing onslaught on the judiciary, electoral processes and the Constitution but she failed to exploit the situation.”
It was after nine years that Mayawati had put up her show of strength in the state capital and her supporters came in droves. But if Mayawati revives the party and re-consolidates her vote bank, she will damage both the Opposition bloc as well as the BJP as she will pull back a chunk of voters that had deserted the dormant BSP, driven by their urge to save the Constitution or were lured by the welfare doles and Ram mandir respectively.
The data says it all.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP polled 9.39% votes, almost 10% down from 19.43% polled in 2019. The BSP had allied with the SP at the time.
Prior to that, the BSP had polled 27.42% votes in 2009 and 19.77% in 2014.
Her votes apparently went to the Opposition alliance. In 2024, the SP polled 33.59% votes, 15.48% higher than 2019. The Congress polled 9.46% votes, 3.1% more than 2019. Akhilesh Yadav’s poll strategy worked. While the alliance with the Congress helped the party consolidate its hold on the Muslims, he convinced the voters about his commitment to the PDA by fielding senior Dalit and non-Yadav backwards. It’s a misconception that Mayawati holds complete control over the entire 21% Dalit voters in the state. Her core constituency is of Jatavs that form a major segment of Dalits.
The party formula has been to hold on to their core votes, chase the plus votes, generally of the candidate’s caste. In 2007, Mayawati had built a rainbow coalition of Dalits-Muslims-Brahmins.
Rattled by the 2024 results, Mayawati came out of her political hibernation. There was also pressure from Bahujan Samaj as they saw their only party moving towards the burial ground.
Now, why did Mayawati target the Samajwadi Party and Congress and praise Yogi at her first show of strength in Lucknow in nine years. The BSP’s last rally was held in 2016, in the run-up to the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls.
There is conjecture that she has been activated by the BJP to divide their anti-votes but in the process, they too will lose a sizable chunk of votes. Ration has lost much of its political appeal. The rally was followed by a meeting of the coordinators in Lucknow on October 16, but still there is uncertainty over her resurrection plan in the air. Or is she expecting hung Houses, both in UP in 2027 and at the Centre in 2029? It is a situation the “Dalit ki Beti” can exploit to the hilt as in the past. After all, a party facing an existential crisis has displayed her vote base to one and all.
But, the BSP has never been averse to sharing power with BJP. Mayawati thrice became chief minister in coalition or with the support of the BJP in 1995, 1997 and 2002. Her cadre also accepted it. However, the situation has changed since then. More accommodative leaders, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, have been replaced by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
Mayawati knows Muslims don’t trust her. And they will not tolerate kind words for Yogi as mosques have been bulldozed, houses razed and businesses destroyed. Will she drop them from her wish list and concentrate on Brahmins, who are also supposedly languishing in the Rajput-dominated regime?
Shashikant Pandey of BR Ambedkar University says the BSP’s social engineering formula had helped the party to form government in 2007 but her style of functioning of late has led to mass desertions of leaders of other communities. The BJP and the SP have made a dent in her core constituency and it would be a Herculean task to win them back. Brahmin voters are also solidly behind the BJP and there is no chance of their shifting to the BSP.
The Congress is weak but Mayawati fears Dalits returning home. All the three Opposition parties fight for the same vote banks and for the same political space driven by secularism and casteism. The rally generated excitement in her core constituency of Dalits, specially Jatavs. MP Ahirwar says a wave of hope has swept over the supporters.
Often, there are two ways the political parties display their political puissance — one by holding mammoth public rallies and the other by putting up electoral performances. And if they fail in both the parameters, political pundits start writing obituaries. The BSP and its leadership has consistently failed on both fronts. She is skilled in putting up massive public rallies and this is precisely what she did to tell one and all that not all is lost. Her rally has reactivated her cadre but they await more action from her and perhaps more freedom to Akash.
Her supporters came in droves, cheered her endlessly but returned home uncertain about her plan to finally resurrect the BSP.
Mayawati’s one message that excited the rallyists was her appeal to support the party’s young national convenor Akash Anand just as they had supported her.
Akash Anand has also ‘matured’, and did not call the BJP names. Describing him as politically immature, Mayawati had earlier removed him as her successor after he had called the Yogi government a terrorist government. He chose his words carefully in his brief speech on October 9 rally. Dalits see in him the future of the BSP and a counter to Chandrashekhar Azad of the Bhim Army, the emerging Dalit leader in the state.
In the words of Banaras Hindu University professor and Dalit activist MP Ahirwar there was loud applause and slogan-shouting when she mentioned Akash Anand’s name. One question, however, that continues to haunt BSP supporters is her commendation of chief minister Yogi Adityanath for the upkeep of memorials.
Mayawati’s consistent silence over their emotive issue of Constitution and quota, the alleged increased atrocities on Dalits and sparing the BJP while fiercely attacking the Opposition had triggered public perception of the party as the “BJP’s B team.” They recalled how Kanshi Ram used to target all in one vein — the BJP, Congress and the Samajwadi Party.
Ashok Bharti, chairman of National Confederation of Dalit and Adivasi organisations (NACDAOR), says, “The October 9 rally was indeed a great effort to make a comeback. However, now when Dalits are trying to come out from their self-exclusionary mode, Mayawat’s instance of attacking everyone does not help them. She could have used this rally to build bridges with the forces opposing the right-wing onslaught on the judiciary, electoral processes and the Constitution but she failed to exploit the situation.”
It was after nine years that Mayawati had put up her show of strength in the state capital and her supporters came in droves. But if Mayawati revives the party and re-consolidates her vote bank, she will damage both the Opposition bloc as well as the BJP as she will pull back a chunk of voters that had deserted the dormant BSP, driven by their urge to save the Constitution or were lured by the welfare doles and Ram mandir respectively.
The data says it all.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP polled 9.39% votes, almost 10% down from 19.43% polled in 2019. The BSP had allied with the SP at the time.
Prior to that, the BSP had polled 27.42% votes in 2009 and 19.77% in 2014.
Her votes apparently went to the Opposition alliance. In 2024, the SP polled 33.59% votes, 15.48% higher than 2019. The Congress polled 9.46% votes, 3.1% more than 2019. Akhilesh Yadav’s poll strategy worked. While the alliance with the Congress helped the party consolidate its hold on the Muslims, he convinced the voters about his commitment to the PDA by fielding senior Dalit and non-Yadav backwards. It’s a misconception that Mayawati holds complete control over the entire 21% Dalit voters in the state. Her core constituency is of Jatavs that form a major segment of Dalits.
The party formula has been to hold on to their core votes, chase the plus votes, generally of the candidate’s caste. In 2007, Mayawati had built a rainbow coalition of Dalits-Muslims-Brahmins.
Rattled by the 2024 results, Mayawati came out of her political hibernation. There was also pressure from Bahujan Samaj as they saw their only party moving towards the burial ground.
Now, why did Mayawati target the Samajwadi Party and Congress and praise Yogi at her first show of strength in Lucknow in nine years. The BSP’s last rally was held in 2016, in the run-up to the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls.
There is conjecture that she has been activated by the BJP to divide their anti-votes but in the process, they too will lose a sizable chunk of votes. Ration has lost much of its political appeal. The rally was followed by a meeting of the coordinators in Lucknow on October 16, but still there is uncertainty over her resurrection plan in the air. Or is she expecting hung Houses, both in UP in 2027 and at the Centre in 2029? It is a situation the “Dalit ki Beti” can exploit to the hilt as in the past. After all, a party facing an existential crisis has displayed her vote base to one and all.
But, the BSP has never been averse to sharing power with BJP. Mayawati thrice became chief minister in coalition or with the support of the BJP in 1995, 1997 and 2002. Her cadre also accepted it. However, the situation has changed since then. More accommodative leaders, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, have been replaced by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
Mayawati knows Muslims don’t trust her. And they will not tolerate kind words for Yogi as mosques have been bulldozed, houses razed and businesses destroyed. Will she drop them from her wish list and concentrate on Brahmins, who are also supposedly languishing in the Rajput-dominated regime?
Shashikant Pandey of BR Ambedkar University says the BSP’s social engineering formula had helped the party to form government in 2007 but her style of functioning of late has led to mass desertions of leaders of other communities. The BJP and the SP have made a dent in her core constituency and it would be a Herculean task to win them back. Brahmin voters are also solidly behind the BJP and there is no chance of their shifting to the BSP.
The Congress is weak but Mayawati fears Dalits returning home. All the three Opposition parties fight for the same vote banks and for the same political space driven by secularism and casteism. The rally generated excitement in her core constituency of Dalits, specially Jatavs. MP Ahirwar says a wave of hope has swept over the supporters.
Often, there are two ways the political parties display their political puissance — one by holding mammoth public rallies and the other by putting up electoral performances. And if they fail in both the parameters, political pundits start writing obituaries. The BSP and its leadership has consistently failed on both fronts. She is skilled in putting up massive public rallies and this is precisely what she did to tell one and all that not all is lost. Her rally has reactivated her cadre but they await more action from her and perhaps more freedom to Akash.
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