Pollster Pradeep Gupta's prediction for Bihar polls: ‘Common denominator is Nitish Kumar’
Elections are due in Bihar later this year and the Election Commission is expected to visit the poll-bound state early next month.
Ahead of the Assembly elections in Bihar, Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India said Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is the only "common denominator" and hinted at a close contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan alliances.
“Bihar is a state where it is difficult to analyse even after the voting is done. Last time, both NDA and the INDIA bloc had 37 per cent vote share each, but RJD won 110 seats while NDA got 125 seats,” Gupta told ANI.
He said that even if there is an anti-incumbency sentiment, the question is if there is an alternative. “The first analysis parameter is the extent of anti-incumbency. In Bihar, it is very different, but the only common denominator is Nitish Kumar, who has been there for 20 years,” he said.
He rejected the idea of Tejashwi Yadav as an alternative and touted BJP as an alternative amid 'jungle raj' allegations against the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led party.
“Before Tejashwi, there is BJP in Bihar...Nitish Kumar has switched alliances in these 20 years, so the public looks at the BJP as an alternative. There are also Tejashwi or the new emerging Prashant Kishor as alternatives,” he said.
Gupta added that the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) equation has helped Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to continue as a strong Opposition party in Bihar.
"In the last 20-30 years, Bihar has been the only state to undergo a caste census. Muslim-Yadav equation is almost 31-32 per cent... Thus, RJD has not lost its presence despite being in opposition for a long time... But they had a history with allegations of 'jungle raj' and extortion," he said.
He highlighted that the inclusion of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is expected to benefit the NDA in the upcoming polls.
"Last time RJD seemed to win, but had LJP contested along with NDA, like now, NDA would have secured 138 seats," he said.
The ruling NDA led by JD(U)-BJP is set to contest against the RJD-Congress' Mahagathbandhan in the upcoming Bihar Assembly polls. The Election Commission of India (ECI) is yet to announce the date for the polling.
The Election Commission led by Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar is likely to visit Patna in the first week of October to take stock of poll preparedness in Bihar.
The term of the 243-member legislative assembly ends on November 22 and assembly polls in the key state are likely to be held in November. Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar is in the final stages of preparation and a final electoral roll will be published on September 30.
