Will SIR make a difference in Bihar elections? 52 constituencies hold the key
Deletion of nearly 47 lakh voters under EC revision may impact outcome, considering omissions work out to 15,000-20,000 voters per segment in 243 assembly seats
The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voters’ list, which has commenced as an all-India exercise from November 4, will first leave its imprimatur on Bihar when the state goes to polls later this month.
The question at stake in Bihar is this: how would the deletion of about 47 lakh voters under the Election Commission-sponsored SIR impact the poll outcome?
Keep in mind that the omissions work out to roughly 15,000 to 20,000 voters per constituency in 243 assembly seats.
What Bihar 2020 results tell us
The question assumes significance in the light of the results of the 2020 Bihar assembly elections where the victory margins were small.
Consider these two points for instance:
- 52 of the state’s 243 constituencies were decided by fewer than 5,000 votes.
- In 10 assembly seats that year — Barbigha, Ramgarh, Matiani, Bhoray, Dehri, Bachwara, Chakai, Kurhani, Hilsa and Bakhri — the difference between the victor and the loser were no more than 500 votes!
This time, add to it the Prashant Kishor factor.
The Jan Suraaj Party leader, on his debut, is expected to enter double figures, making the already crowded field much more congested, where every vote may count.
It would be instructive to remember that, five years ago, the fight was closely contested. The RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats and the BJP finished second with 74. Though, the NDA came out on top with 125 constituencies including the BJP's 74, while the Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD finished with 110.
Given the circumstances, how will this revised voter list play out?
Questions on EC's fairness, Oppn strategy
Says DM Diwakar, distinguished social scientist, now with the Development Research Institute, Jalsain: “It is certain that SIR’s voter list revision will leave its mark on the Bihar elections. But when the Election Commission is compromised, with the government removing the Chief Justice of India from the selection of its top officials, the battle becomes one-sided.”
He added, "The only way for opposition parties to counter this revision, is to ensure sound booth management and be present in large numbers on the day of the polling.”
Bihar will have a total electorate of 7.4 crore when the state goes for assembly elections on November 6 and 11, with an overall voter drop count of 6%. According to the Election Commission, the average voter deletion rate across Bihar stands at 5.9%.
The counting of the votes will be done on November 14.
Seemanchal's Muslims, and charge of ‘bias’
Bihar's Magadh region, which includes Patna — chief minister Nitish Kumar’s strong base — has seen the highest voter addition rate, while Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region has recorded the highest voter deletion rate in the SIR. Seemanchal also has the highest voter deletion rate among Bihar's key regions, at 7.7%.
This region comprises four districts — Kishanganj, Purnea, Katihar, and Araria — and has an average Muslim population of 48 per cent, who have traditionally backed the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)- and Congress-led Mahagathbandhan or ‘grand alliance’.
Muslims in Seemanchal have alleged disenfranchisement and inaccurate deletions.
They allege that the SIR process was biased, as Muslim voters were perceived as not voting for the BJP. They pointed to errors such as the deletion of names without proper verification; the removal of migrant workers' names, who have temporarily moved for work but still retain their right to vote; and other inaccuracies in the revised electoral roll.
The Election Commission, however, told the Supreme Court that the SIR exercise in Bihar was “accurate”, and that the allegations that Muslims were disproportionately excluded from the final list were “communal”.
What do these deletions mean on the ground?
Explains senior journalist Pranav Choudhary: "On Seemanchal’s 24 seats, where the RJD and Congress-led grand alliance had won 15 seats in the 2020 polls, these deletions could cost them roughly 8-12 seats. The possible splitting of 5-10% Muslim votes to the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) (of Asaduddin Owaisi) and the Jan Suraaj Party of Prashant Kishor could likely mean the difference between victory and defeat.”
In Bihar, which had traditionally backed a coalition government, the state’s biggest political parties, the RJD, BJP and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JDU, fall well short of the 122 seats needed to form a government on their own.
The other point is, whether or not the anti-SIR campaign has sustained in the long run.
Grey area between ‘active’ voters and others
Observers say it has failed to make a visible impact in the rural areas. Rahul Gandhi’s statewide ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ in August had galvanised the opposition but, since then, there has been a lull.
“After the completion of a 17-day campaign against, no follow-up has been done in the grassroots," noted one observer.
According to economist Ashmita Gupta of Patna’s Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI), it is true that government data collection is far from rigorous. “Not all protocols are followed as there is very little time. While I cannot offer an overall comment, it is generally believed that people who are active in their areas have got themselves enrolled.”
The grey area, however, is about the vast majority who may not be “active”.
Former chief election commissioner N Gopalaswami, however, believes that the EC as a body is competent enough to execute the logistics needed for such an exercise. “Please don’t look at the total number of voters deleted. Look at the total number of booths in Bihar,” he told this reporter.
Enormity of the exercise
According to latest figures, Bihar has a total of 90,712 polling booths. This number was reached after 12,817 polling stations were added to revise the ceiling of electors per station to 1,200, making Bihar the first state in India to achieve this distinction.
“An exercise that began roughly since late June and concluded in late October is enough time for the Election Commission to fix a polling booth of less than 1,200 voters, throughout the state,” Gopalaswami said, adding that the work may have stated on the project even before the formal announcement of the SIR on June 24.
There are more than 1 lakh Booth Level Officers (BLOs), nearly 4 lakh volunteers, and more than 1.5 lakh Booth Level Agents (BLAs) appointed by political parties, to ensure the smooth implementation of this exercise.
Even more significant, the Bihar poll results could offer an insight into the national roadmap when the SIR project moves on to 12 states and Union territories, which was rolled out on November 4.
