India’s litmus test in import of Russian oil
If India yields to US pressure and stops buying oil from Russia, it would seriously undermine its narrative of strategic independence
US President Donald Trump’s repeated claim that India will almost completely stop buying oil from Russia by the end of this year has made the issue a litmus test for India’s strategic autonomy. Even the EU, the largest buyer of Russian pipeline gas and LNG, has been urging India to stop purchasing Russian oil and has even sanctioned an Indian company over its links with Russia. Russian ambassador to India Denis Alipov’s assertions of mechanisms existing to minimise sanction risks in an interview with this newspaper must be read against the backdrop.
In recent months, India and China together have purchased about 4 million barrels per day (mbpd) from Russia. Between April and September, India imported about 1.75 mbpd — roughly 36% of its total crude imports. Chinese companies, meanwhile, have been importing around 1.4 mbpd by sea, while PetroChina brings in an additional 900,000 barrels per day through pipeline.
Although Trump has often accused India of “funding Russia’s war”, he did not raise oil purchases with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea. China has rejected US sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. Even Germany has requested exemptions for three refineries owned by Rosneft’s local subsidiary, similar to the waiver it obtained from the UK. Hungary and Slovakia, both heavily dependent on Russian oil supplies, are seeking exemptions, with Hungarian PM Viktor Orban already having secured a one-year waiver from the sanctions during his recent visit to the US. India, meanwhile, has neither rejected the US sanctions nor confirmed Trump’s claim that it would reduce purchases. Instead, New Delhi has maintained that Indian companies’ oil-buying decisions are guided solely by market conditions.
As New Delhi is currently engaged in trade talks with the US, a degree of caution is understandable. However, failing to call out the illegality of these unilateral tariffs and sanctions could send the wrong signal to Global South countries that look to India for leadership. The Indian public also deserves clarity on whether any commitments have been made to the US regarding Russian oil purchases.
To finalise its trade deal with the US, India may increase its purchases of American energy. This could help diversify supply sources and strengthen long-term energy security. However, linking Russian oil purchases to the trade deal is problematic. If India yields to US pressure and stops buying oil from Russia, it would seriously undermine its narrative of strategic independence. India must ensure that its foreign and energy policies are not dictated by any external power.
Some Western news agencies have reported, based on “sources”, that not just Indian companies but also some Chinese firms are scaling down their purchases. Despite US pressure, both China and India are likely to continue purchasing Russian crude. There may be minor disruptions in the coming weeks before new adjustments are made. China could even increase its imports if Indian private firms scale back purchases — quite like when India stopped buying Iranian oil under US pressure. Oil purchases from Russia began as a purely commercial initiative by a few major private energy firms, with backing from the Indian government. It would likely have declined had market conditions turned unfavourable. However, as the US and EU increasingly politicised the issue, it has become a challenge to India’s strategic autonomy. After processing, a significant portion of discounted Russian crude has been re-exported to Western markets. Anticipating reduced supplies once the EU ban takes effect, Indian refiners have started diversifying their export destinations to markets such as Brazil, Turkey, and the UAE.
India’s expanding refining capacity and rising petroleum product exports, driven by discounted Russian crude, may also have significant environmental implications due to increased refining activity. This aspect is likely to gain importance if current trends persist. Russian oil imports have carried significant geopolitical implications for India, generated substantial profits for certain Indian firms, and contributed to the stabilisation of energy markets domestically and globally. The US and EU singling out India may leave New Delhi with no option but to continue importing crude oil from Russia. It may also make several connectivity projects that India and Russia have discussed for years more viable. The big strides in India-Russia ties assume significance in this context.
Gulshan Sachdeva is professor and Jean Monnet chair at the Centre of European Studies, JNU. The views expressed are personal
