A make-or-break moment for Israel, Hamas—and Donald Trump

Hamas negotiators will be led by Khalil al-Hayya. Four weeks ago an Israeli strike on Doha narrowly missed him, killing his son, an aide and three bodyguards

On Monday October 6th the key actors in the Israel-Hamas war will meet for talks in Egypt. The immediate agenda is phase-one negotiations on the mechanics of a release of hostages by Hamas in Gaza. But many people, including most Israelis, Gazans and Donald Trump, hope that a deal on this will unlock phase-two talks in the future that permanently end the war. Whether that happens depends in part on how well the negotiators can resolve or gloss over apparently irreconcilable differences. It also depends on whether, under intense public pressure and exhaustion, the leaders of Israel and what is left of Hamas now pivot towards peace.

File photo of President Donald Trump speaks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at White House,(AP)

The Hamas negotiators will be led by Khalil al-Hayya. Four weeks ago an Israeli strike on Doha narrowly missed him, killing his son, an aide and three bodyguards. On another hotel floor in the resort of Sharm el-Sheikh will be Ron Dermer, an adviser to Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and a member of the cabinet which approved the strike. The two teams will not meet directly, but American, Egyptian and Qatari diplomats will scurry between them. Two Trump confidants, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are expected to be there.

Mr Trump will hold their feet to the fire. A week ago, he launched a 20-point peace plan, forcing Mr Netanyahu to commit to ending the war. It could lead, said the president, to “eternal peace”. On October 3rd a qualified response from Hamas didn’t put Mr Trump off. “I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE” he posted. He told Mr Netanyahu to swallow his reservations and order the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to cease bombing in Gaza. On October 5th he threatened Hamas with “Complete Obliteration!” unless it relinquished power. Mr Kushner, his son-in-law, and Mr Witkoff, his golfing partner, are heading to Egypt to “babysit” the Israelis, as one American diplomat puts it, and force them to make a deal. Mr Trump is relying on his Qatari allies to turn up the temperature on Hamas. He still hopes to win the Nobel Peace prize, which is due to be announced on October 10th.

The talks must solve the puzzle of how to sequence a ceasefire. The easier part is that it would involve the speedy release of the 48 Israeli hostages (at least 20 of whom are still assumed to be alive) who have been held now for two years, and confirmation of the list of 1,950 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences, whom Israel is to release in return. The mechanics are trickier. Until Hamas disarms and eschews power, Israel will not guarantee the IDF’s exit from the strip. But unless Hamas has confidence the IDF will not resume fighting once the hostages are released, it will not play ball. The likely compromise is a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces and verbal or written guarantees from Israel and America. If a ceasefire and hostage-release happen, aid is expected to flood Gaza.

Israel’s army is ready for a deal. Exhausted after two years of warfare, the IDF wants to draw down the current five divisions it has in Gaza and release tens of thousands of reservists. “For months all our planning has included the contingency of a quick ceasefire and rapid redeployment,” says a general. The IDF will pull back to whatever line is decided upon in the talks within days. Once the list of Palestinian prisoners to be released is finalised, Israel’s cabinet must vote to approve it. That must then be followed by a 24-hour period during which the families of those killed by the prisoners will be able to petition the Supreme Court against their release. The judges in the past have turned down the petitioners and once these formalities are over, the saga of the hostages which has gripped Israeli society for so long could end.

The images of Israel’s hostages finally being released and aid pouring in for desperate civilians in Gaza may trigger euphoria on both sides. But ahead lie far bigger and more complex challenges. Mr Trump’s plan, which has been endorsed by America’s Arab allies, calls for the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of a “technocratic” government which will administer the strip’s civilian affairs and the deployment of an “International Stabilisation Force” to provide security and prevent Hamas from taking tacit or explicit control of Gaza. While the negotiators will be eager to lay the foundations for these phase-two talks, the two parties still hold public positions that are irreconcilable and have to confront their own internal politics.

For Hamas the hostages are its bargaining chips. The group will try to hold out for more concrete guarantees that prevent a resumption of the IDF’s campaign, and push back on the other components of the 20-point plan. Mr Hayya, a member of the quartet leading Hamas since its previous leader, Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the atrocities of October 7th, was killed a year ago, is under pressure from all sides. He and his colleagues need to justify the disaster they brought down on their own people, and so will hail the release of prisoners. While they say they may eventually accept a technocratic government, they will expect to keep control of Gaza and will be reluctant to weaken their position in the future struggle against their rival Fatah for leadership of the Palestinian national movement. They are in no rush to hand over their remaining arsenal. Hamas is split between those who insist on the “resistance” identity of its armed wing and those prepared to accept a transition to a more political role. The talks in Egypt will send a critical signal about Hamas’s long-term identity. A wholesale rejection of the process would signal a new degree of nihilism from the Islamist movement, and perhaps, intensify dissent and unrest among the population in Gaza.

Even as Hamas faces a rubicon, so does Mr Netanyahu, who will be soon fighting a re-election campaign. Under intense pressure from Mr Trump he has been forced to go along with the ceasefire plan and is now presenting it as his own personal victory. In a statement to the Israeli public, he boasted “From victory to victory—we are changing the face of the Middle East.” Israel’s security establishment and 72% of the public support the Trump plan.

But what if many of its 20 points are not met? For example, if the talks result in the IDF withdrawing from most of the Gaza Strip without securing the complete dismantlement of Hamas’s military infrastructure, his far-right coalition partners will carry out their threat to leave his government and Mr Netanyahu will be forced into an early election (currently scheduled for next October). Under fire both from the opposition and his former partners, it will be much harder to sell himself to voters as the war’s victor. Ending the war in Gaza is the aim of this week’s talks. The leaders of both sides have their own political futures at stake as well.