How to Read the Ukraine Talks
It isn’t yet ‘Trump’s war,’ but events are starting to point in that direction.
The big news isn’t the noisy peace negotiations that have seen Ukraine and Donald Trump coming closer together as Mr. Trump discovers changing political landscapes, his own and the war’s.
The big news was this month’s $105 billion commitment of fresh European money over two years, which wipes away an uncertainty about Ukraine’s staying power and upsets the hopeful timeline that was playing in Vladimir Putin’s head.
The funding represents halting but real progress toward European strategic adulthood. It’s the best sign since Finland’s and Sweden’s still-underappreciated decisions to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization following Russia’s 2022 attempt to occupy Kyiv.
This week also saw displays of weakness from the Putin side, including a public meeting with his military commanders in which he received exaggerated claims of their progress on the ground and Ukraine’s impending military collapse.
It saw Mr. Putin’s aged serf, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, spinning a story about a dastardly attack by 91 Ukrainian drones on Mr. Putin’s not-very-secret residence between St. Petersburg and Moscow. Never mind that the story is unsupported by evidence or witnesses.
Mr. Lavrov is known to have been eager for years to be relieved of duty so he can enjoy an implausibly rich retirement and his alleged collection of foreign properties. But Mr. Putin won’t let him go even as the world has come to understand he’s an errand boy, no longer consulted about Mr. Putin’s plans and decisions.
Mr. Trump is no Talleyrand himself, but his surprisingly successful paradoxical stance Talleyrand would appreciate. Mr. Trump plays the neutral, disinterested mediator (and gets away with it) even while his administration supplies weapons, training and tactical intelligence to Ukraine.
Mr. Putin swallows it. The continuation of U.S. intelligence support may not be flaunted but it’s hardly hidden. U.S. weapons still flow but are laundered through Europe. Mr. Trump’s prestige is not officially invested in any particular outcome except “peace.” But Mr. Trump still behaves as if a truly neutralized Ukraine wouldn’t serve his or America’s interests.
In fact, Mr. Trump is feeling his way forward, as any politician would, weighing his many conflicting interests. This, for now, precludes actual peace because it precludes the use of a stick to change Mr. Putin’s calculations. But Trump critics may sense the approaching day they’ve been waiting for. It will become Mr. Trump’s war. He will have to engage in an escalation contest with Mr. Putin, which Mr. Trump will surely win, but it will cost him some MAGA support. It won’t earn him strange new respect from Democrats or never-Trump Republicans who have been demanding exactly such acts from him since he returned to office.
Mr. Trump likely sees himself as Nixon: If he takes responsibility for an inherited war, as he may have to, he will be mau-maued by those he inherited it from.
But the important cards have been dealt. Until Mr. Trump bites the bullet, the war will linger in stalemate as Mr. Putin flails after some plausible claim of victory that would allow him to begin cauterizing Russia’s deepening strategic losses.
Ukraine’s rout is unacceptable to NATO or Europe. The European Union has shelved for now the pathetic dodge of using Russian frozen assets—it was pathetic because Europe is rich enough to sustain Ukraine and also keep Russia’s assets frozen forever. But Europe always struggles painfully to summon the presence to act on its own unrepealable strategic interests.
The U.S. and Europe could be doing more to curtail Russia’s vital energy revenue, but they’re making headway and it’s starting to tell, helped by Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s refiners and Black Sea tanker fleet.
Through the murk, China’s interest in the war is important and complicated. Beijing fears the precedent of a Putin failure and overthrow, but it also finds much to savor in Russia’s slow unraveling.
Mr. Trump is the pivot. He could expedite progress but it would require him to take ownership of the Ukraine outcome, which he calculates (as of now) doesn’t serve his interests. But that calculation may change as he moves through a second term toward the liberation and oppression of lame duckhood.
Mr. Trump is already acting like a president who notices that foreign policy affords him a field of opportunity when his domestic position is weakening. Don’t rule out a new calculation on Ukraine especially when next year’s midterms are behind him. Europe’s scrabbling together of funds to put into the pot is important here. Mr. Trump is drawn to teams that are winning and mobilizing resources on their own, so he can step in and take credit for their success.
The big news isn’t the noisy peace negotiations that have seen Ukraine and Donald Trump coming closer together as Mr. Trump discovers changing political landscapes, his own and the war’s.
The big news was this month’s $105 billion commitment of fresh European money over two years, which wipes away an uncertainty about Ukraine’s staying power and upsets the hopeful timeline that was playing in Vladimir Putin’s head.
The funding represents halting but real progress toward European strategic adulthood. It’s the best sign since Finland’s and Sweden’s still-underappreciated decisions to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization following Russia’s 2022 attempt to occupy Kyiv.
This week also saw displays of weakness from the Putin side, including a public meeting with his military commanders in which he received exaggerated claims of their progress on the ground and Ukraine’s impending military collapse.
It saw Mr. Putin’s aged serf, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, spinning a story about a dastardly attack by 91 Ukrainian drones on Mr. Putin’s not-very-secret residence between St. Petersburg and Moscow. Never mind that the story is unsupported by evidence or witnesses.
Mr. Lavrov is known to have been eager for years to be relieved of duty so he can enjoy an implausibly rich retirement and his alleged collection of foreign properties. But Mr. Putin won’t let him go even as the world has come to understand he’s an errand boy, no longer consulted about Mr. Putin’s plans and decisions.
Mr. Trump is no Talleyrand himself, but his surprisingly successful paradoxical stance Talleyrand would appreciate. Mr. Trump plays the neutral, disinterested mediator (and gets away with it) even while his administration supplies weapons, training and tactical intelligence to Ukraine.
Mr. Putin swallows it. The continuation of U.S. intelligence support may not be flaunted but it’s hardly hidden. U.S. weapons still flow but are laundered through Europe. Mr. Trump’s prestige is not officially invested in any particular outcome except “peace.” But Mr. Trump still behaves as if a truly neutralized Ukraine wouldn’t serve his or America’s interests.
In fact, Mr. Trump is feeling his way forward, as any politician would, weighing his many conflicting interests. This, for now, precludes actual peace because it precludes the use of a stick to change Mr. Putin’s calculations. But Trump critics may sense the approaching day they’ve been waiting for. It will become Mr. Trump’s war. He will have to engage in an escalation contest with Mr. Putin, which Mr. Trump will surely win, but it will cost him some MAGA support. It won’t earn him strange new respect from Democrats or never-Trump Republicans who have been demanding exactly such acts from him since he returned to office.
Mr. Trump likely sees himself as Nixon: If he takes responsibility for an inherited war, as he may have to, he will be mau-maued by those he inherited it from.
But the important cards have been dealt. Until Mr. Trump bites the bullet, the war will linger in stalemate as Mr. Putin flails after some plausible claim of victory that would allow him to begin cauterizing Russia’s deepening strategic losses.
Ukraine’s rout is unacceptable to NATO or Europe. The European Union has shelved for now the pathetic dodge of using Russian frozen assets—it was pathetic because Europe is rich enough to sustain Ukraine and also keep Russia’s assets frozen forever. But Europe always struggles painfully to summon the presence to act on its own unrepealable strategic interests.
The U.S. and Europe could be doing more to curtail Russia’s vital energy revenue, but they’re making headway and it’s starting to tell, helped by Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s refiners and Black Sea tanker fleet.
Through the murk, China’s interest in the war is important and complicated. Beijing fears the precedent of a Putin failure and overthrow, but it also finds much to savor in Russia’s slow unraveling.
Mr. Trump is the pivot. He could expedite progress but it would require him to take ownership of the Ukraine outcome, which he calculates (as of now) doesn’t serve his interests. But that calculation may change as he moves through a second term toward the liberation and oppression of lame duckhood.
Mr. Trump is already acting like a president who notices that foreign policy affords him a field of opportunity when his domestic position is weakening. Don’t rule out a new calculation on Ukraine especially when next year’s midterms are behind him. Europe’s scrabbling together of funds to put into the pot is important here. Mr. Trump is drawn to teams that are winning and mobilizing resources on their own, so he can step in and take credit for their success.
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