Can Apple hold the line on iPhone 17 pricing amid tariff turbulence?

The September keynote, themed ‘awe dropping’ for 2025, is set to be a first in a series of defining moments as Apple reshapes its iPhone portfolio.

The annual iPhone keynote of September 2025 may well mark the beginning of a significant realignment of Apple’s iPhone portfolio for years to come. For Apple CEO Tim Cook, this is one that may well be as consequential as the iPhone X in 2017, and a direction iPhones have taken since. There have been iterations since, with the iPhone X form factor continuing for a few years, including the ‘Max’ naming for the larger phone before flatter spines returned with the iPhone 12 series in 2020. That’s continued since. You could call it slow pace of innovation, you could equally call it consistency. No need to really change what simply works? This year, significant design changes aren’t likely limited to just hardware. With iOS 26, which sees the switch to a year-based naming scheme, the Liquid Glass interface rings in the era of a translucent, fluid design language. So, how exactly is the iPhone 17 series shaping up?

In 2024, Apple bucked the generational inflation trend that’s common with smartphone refreshes. (REUTERS)

For starters, the expectation is the portfolio will remain four wide — the standard iPhone 17, an iPhone 17, but no Plus, an iPhone 17 Pro, of course an iPhone 17 Pro Max, and the newest addition — a slimmer than all other iPhones iPhone. Likely to be dubbed ‘Air’, as an ode to the original MacBook Air which Steve Jobs had pulled out of a manilla envelope, back in 2008. The Mac and iPad lines have had an Air form factor for years now, and looks like the iPhone is joining in too. The iPhone 17 Air, for what is essentially a first generation device, may take tentative steps as far as the hardware is concerned. And by that, don’t expect it to match the Pro iPhones for cameras, for instance. But it may well have parity with the latest Apple Silicon. Yet, it’ll become clear in a few hours from now, whether Apple is giving the entire iPhone line wholesale design updates, or if that’ll be a staggered approach over the next couple of years.

Remember Apple’s in-house modem that first figured in the iPhone 16e earlier this year, should also find a place in more than one, if not all, of the iPhone 17 portfolio. There will of course be a successor to the 3-nanometer Apple A18 Pro chip, with what is likely to be a continuation of a three-pronged focus — AI compute power, chip level performance, and battery frugality. To that extent, the iPhone 17 Air will be in focus in terms of what a slim design means for battery capacity and stamina, the camera system and indeed, the pricing. In essence, the Air format iPhone will replace the current iPhone 16 Plus — and the targeted user demographic is more than clear.

The iPhone 16 Pro phones have consistently performed well for Apple, something they’ve pointed out in quarterly earnings calls. That should continue with the next generation iPhone Pro models as well, and it is unlikely Apple will change approach in terms of keeping things cutting-edge here (a revamped camera system is to be expected, and not just hardware but also an updated image processing approach), across two different screen sizes and of course, battery capacities. The internet chatter would like us to believe Apple may choose aluminium over titanium, and while a slightly less exotic material (I am not sure most users can even tell the difference at first glance), it does have inherent advantages of being lighter than titanium and can also lend itself to some gently colourful hues. That neatly takes me to the point of a likely new colour option or two for the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max may refresh the visual appeal, but largely expect continuity instead of wholesale changes. At least this year.

Price estimates: Not a simple calculation

Then comes the question of pricing. In 2024, Apple bucked the generational inflation trend that’s common with smartphone refreshes, so much so that Android rivals had to get on a quick course correction path. It’ll be interesting to see how inherent tariff volatility, global currency fluctuations and the contours of the supply chain a year later, impact the iPhone 17 series pricing. It is believed that Apple has, for the last couple of years, calculated India pricing at close to ₹100 for every dollar — that headroom should now come in very handy.

This won’t be a simple calculation though. As Faisal Kawoosa, chief analyst at research firm Techarc, explains to HT, “Projecting the price of the upcoming iPhone 17 series, we estimate the base model to start from ₹86,000 if Apple continues to increase the price on the existing annual average rate. However, there has been a 5% depreciation in average exchange value of Indian rupee versus US$ in 2025 over last year, which Apple might have to factor in increasing the launch price beyond ₹86,000.”

For reference, iPhone 16 prices at launch started at ₹79,900 while iPhone 16 Plus was priced ₹89,900 onwards, whereas the iPhone 16 Pro was marked at ₹1,19,900 onwards while the iPhone 16 Pro which cost ₹1,44,900 onwards. The Pro phones, in particular, a marked difference to a year prior — the iPhone 15 Pro was then priced at ₹1,34,900 onwards while an iPhone 15 Pro Max held a sticker price of ₹1,59,900 onwards.

Any iPhone keynote also brings with it a pertinent question, what else is on the agenda? There could well be a case for an Apple Watch 3 Ultra, something Apple had skipped in the traditional upgrade sense, last year. There was a cosmetic refresh (the gorgeous satin black finish, worth remembering), and some new bands. A higher resolution screen may well be worth it, but Apple will have to ensure that it doesn’t come at the cost of battery stamina — the Ultra series does really well with battery life. Two ways to do that — a slightly larger display Watch Ultra is something no one would mind and bring parity with the Apple Watch 10th generation), or denser battery composition. Is there also a case for an 11th generation Apple Watch?

There’s more that can potentially figure at the iPhone keynote. AirPods, for instance, must eventually get the heart rate monitor that the PowerBeats earbuds added earlier this year. An update to the HomePod smart home hub and speaker is long overdue, as is potentially a new HomePod mini, and it’s been three years since the Apple TV 4K media streamer cum gaming console last got an update (one with an A17 Pro chip will be mighty delicious for gaming). It is however unlikely that Apple will launch new iPad hardware this time around, because it’ll be fighting for attention alongside the new iPhones — when that happens, it’ll need an in-depth M5 chip conversation, which may be unlikely in this keynote.

Apple will also give us the timelines for the release of iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 as well as macOS 26 Tahoe, with the final test versions (also called release candidates) for at least the iPhone and iPad, expected the same day as the keynote.