What is at stake in the battle for urban Maharashtra

The January 15 polls would indicate which party dominates urban Maharashtra, which according to the 2011 census, is home to 45.2% of the state’s population

With the announcement of civic polls in 29 cities, including Mumbai, the battle for urban Maharashtra has begun between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition parties. A lot is at stake as the parties clash for control of 29 municipal corporations, though the most significant battle is for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which governs India’s financial capital.

Nagpur: Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, state deputy chief ministers Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawaron Dec. 9 (PTI)

The January 15 polls would indicate which party or coalition dominates urban Maharashtra, which, according to the 2011 census, accounted for 45.2% of the state’s population. A large chunk of the state’s industries and commercial activities were in these cities, especially in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and the Pune-Nashik region. As such, the control over urban Maharashtra would be crucial for the parties in their future plans.

The outcome will be significant for the top three leaders of the Mahayuti -- chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and his deputies Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.

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For the BJP, the civic polls are the next step toward establishing its complete dominance in Maharashtra. However, with Uddhav and Raj Thackeray joining hands and campaigning with a poll pitch aimed at the Marathi manoos, as well as its two allies -- Shiv Sena and NCP -- seeking to extract their pound of flesh, it would not be an easy task. Though the BJP is expected to do well in the local body polls, winning major cities, including Mumbai, would be crucial for Fadnavis to retain his grip over the state politics.

For Shinde, the election is more significant than for either Fadnavis or Pawar. It will be important for him to ensure that the Shiv Sena (UBT), led by his bete noire, Uddhav Thackeray, fails in the civic polls. The Shiv Sena, led by its founder, late Bal Thackeray, has built its political foundation in Mumbai and cities around the civic polls. Winning the civic polls in the urban centres would help Uddhav Thackeray bounce back. This is also why the Thackeray versus Shinde battle will be a key highlight of the civic polls.

The BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena have reached an understanding after their bitter fight that saw both parties poaching each other’s local leaders, and have decided to contest the civic polls together in Mumbai and most other cities.

A senior BJP leader said, “The feedback from the ground after the first phase of civic polls and the possible impact of Thackeray brothers campaigning together, which could lead to consolidation of Marathi votes, has alarmed our top brass. As such, Fadnavis held a meeting with the allies on December 8, and we have decided to contest together at most of the places.”

As far as deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar is concerned, his priority would be Pune, western Maharashtra, and other parts of the state that the NCP traditionally dominated. Significantly, in Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad, his main opponent will be ally BJP.

Decimated in the assembly elections last year, the Congress has an opportunity to rebuild its base in the urban Maharashtra where it was a key political player till a decade ago. Whether the party can seize the opportunity remains to be seen. To be sure, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (S) is not a significant player in most civic bodies but it may play a role in some places, such as Pune district.

The most important contest will be for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the richest civic body in the country, and will primarily pit the BJP-Shiv Sena combine against the Thackeray brothers.

For a decade since the BJP emerged as the largest party in Maharashtra, the state as well as central leadership of the party have been keen on winning power in the BMC or Mumbai civic body. The civic body that runs India’s financial capital is like a mini-government, and ruling it also brings significant political clout. The BMC’s budget for 2025-26 is ₹74.427 crore, which is significantly higher than that of any other civic body in India. For decades, Shiv Sena drew its strength and clout from its power in the BMC.

Although the Shiv Sena was split by Eknath Shinde in 2022 with the BJP’s support, the Uddhav Thackeray-led party still has a strong presence in the metropolis and won three of six Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections.

The two Thackeray cousins, Uddhav and Raj, buried their differences and teamed up to revive their political fortunes. The election will indicate whether this strategy works to consolidate Marathi votes and, to begin with, win the BMC.

The poll campaign in Mumbai is likely to revolve around the Marathi manoos.

“There have been attempts to remove the Marathi-speaking population from Mumbai. Every government decision seems to be in that direction. The ruling parties are working for builders,” Aaditya Thackeray said on Monday.

Fadnavis played down the impact of the tie-up between the Thackeray brothers. “Even if two Thackeray brothers come together and Congress joins them, Mahayuti will win. Our governance, all around development of the city and safeguarding interest of Marathi manoos has been seen by all. I am confident that Mumbaikars will vote for the Mahayuti,” he said.

To be sure, the opposition alliance, Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is in a bad shape. In Mumbai, Congress has chosen not to continue its alliance with Shiv Sena (UBT) as it does not want an alliance with the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. “We will contest on our own. We want to take along all sections and contest on the issues that bother common Mumbaikars,” Mumbai Congress chief Varsha Gaikwad said.