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INR 10-crore race at IPL 2026 auction: Why ex-CSK star and 3 others could trigger big-money bidding wars in Abu Dhabi
The IPL 2026 mini-auction features 359 players competing for 77 slots, creating a scarcity-driven market. The INR 10-cr club remains exclusive.
The IPL 2026 mini-auction is just a couple of days away. There will be interest as to the players who can cross the 10cr barrier during the event. Now, a mini-auction does not reward volume; it rewards scarcity. With 359 shortlisted players chasing only 77 open slots, most names are walking into Abu Dhabi already fighting the arithmetic.
That same squeeze is why the INR 10-cr club stays small this year. The room simply does not have enough must-win targets, and not enough teams with the purse flexibility for 10 to 12 players to blow past the eight figures.
Why so few players can cross INR 10 cr
1. The auction is structurally tight
This year, it is cold maths more than hype: 359 players, 77 slots (46 Indians, 31 overseas). That is about 4.7 or 5 players competing per slot, and a player’s chance of getting picked at all is only about 21% by probability.
In that kind of funnel, franchises behave predictably: one premium fight early, then a long pivot to value.
2. Oversupply kills inflation
The auction list is deep enough that many roles come with substitutes. Even within the top groupings, there is a pack effect: if a team misses Target A, they can jump to Target B quickly.
The message from the auction list is quite blunt: the biggest money clusters around pace-bowling all-rounders and high-pace fast bowlers, with explosive top-order/wk batters as the next tier.
That hierarchy naturally limits the INR 10 cr candidates to a handful of role-defining names.
3. Purse reality decides how many wars can even happen
INR 10 cr+ purchases need franchises that can (a) afford one swing and (b) still complete a squad. Even if multiple teams want the same player, only a few can keep the paddle up without damaging the rest of their build.
4. Base price doesn’t cap the ceiling
It is not mandatory that only INR 2 cr base-price players cross INR 10 cr. The INR 20-50 L bracket is the most unpredictable pocket, where low entry tickets can still become huge jumps.
But when you are predicting likely INR 10 cr outcomes, you still start with role scarcity and then ask, which players solve the greatest number of problems per XI slot?
Cameron Green
Who will want him
Kolkata Knight Riders are the most obvious catalyst. KKR have a large purse and look poised to bring Cameron Green as a replacement for Andre Russell. That is a direct role substitution for a franchise-defining slot.
Chennai Super Kings are also in the market for an elite overseas all-rounder/finisher at the top of their wishlist. Green fits that exact two-skills-in-one overseas slot template.
Lucknow Super Giants are expected to target overseas all-rounders too, and they have enough room to pick one and then bargain-fill.
How the bidding for Green climbs past INR 10 cr
This is the classic anchor bidder + two opportunists auction.
- KKR can afford to make Green their headline buy because they have both the purse and the vacancy volume.
- Once KKR set a high anchor, CSK can justify saying that because they have explicitly prioritised an overseas all-rounder/finisher.
- LSG can also join in this war as the third bidder.
In that triangle, INR 10 cr becomes less a price and more a tipping point: KKR’s replacement narrative and CSK’s urgency is exactly how this bidding war might overshoot.
Most likely bidding drivers: KKR, CSK, LSG
Matheesha Pathirana
Who will want him
CSK are explicitly linked to Pathirana in reports: they released him, and if they can’t get him back cheaper, they will target other overseas fast bowlers. That’s basically: Matheesha Pathirana first, then alternatives.
But the wider market is strong because several teams have specific overseas fast-bowling needs:
- KKR need at least one, if not two, overseas fast bowlers after releasing multiple quicks
- RCB need an overseas fast bowling backup for Hazlewood and seam depth.
- SRH want an experienced fast bowler after Shami was traded out.
- GT could look for an overseas bowling partner/backup for Rabada.
How it climbs past INR 10 Cr
Death bowling creates an endgame premium.
- CSK might be the opening bidders for Pathirana, and they will go in aggressively because they know the player and the role fit, and they have the purse to do it.
- KKR enter because they need overseas pace, and they can outlast most teams financially.
- If RCB/SRH/GT are still shopping for overseas pace at that stage of the auction, they can push it into the INR 9-11 cr zone before backing out.
This is how Pathirana price might cross INR 10 cr: CSK’s buy-back intent meets KKR’s purse power. If both are in, the rest of the room becomes supporting heat.
Most likely bidding drivers: CSK, KKR, with RCB/SRH/GT as accelerants.
Also Read: CSK have Cameron Green for INR 21 cr as KKR go hard for Liam Livingstone in ‘Winning Bid’ of Ashwin's mock auction
Ravi Bishnoi
Who will want him
Two teams have needs that perfectly line up perfectly:
LSG specifically need to replace him as they release him. That can mean two things in the room: either they genuinely move on, or they attempt a re-buy if the price is sane.
Rajasthan Royals have wrist spin in their top priority and are looking for an Indian or overseas spinner to partner Jadeja. With only one overseas slot left, the Indian option becomes even more valuable.
They are also secondary, could use more spin teams, but the real INR 10 cr pathway is RR vs LSG.
How the price of Bishnoi climbs past INR 10 cr
- Ravi Bishnoi’s inflation case isn’t about spin being expensive: It is about quality Indian wrist spin being scarce in a mini-auction
- RR can go harder than it looks because they have 9 slots to fill and must solve the wrist spin problem without burning their overseas slot.
- LSG can keep bidding because they are actively trying to patch multiple holes, and the budget to make one major purchase.
Once it becomes a direct duel, INR 10 cr comes from the psychology of if we lose him, what’s our plan B? Wrist spin plan B’s tend to be either:
- Less proven, or
- Overseas, or
- A different type of spinner entirely
The scarcity forces the paddle up longer than normal.
Most likely bidding drivers: RR, LSG
Liam Livingstone
Who will want him
CSK are openly linked again. CSK big furiously for Livingstone last year but lost him, and they want an elite overseas all-rounder/finisher at the top of their wishlist. That’s the exact emotional and tactical combo that creates a premium bid.
Liam Livingstone also fits what other teams are shopping for:
- LSG need an overseas finisher to replace David Miller.
- GT need middle-order batters/finishers.
- PBKS want an overseas all-rounder
RCB released Livingstone and now needs a reserve middle-order batter, either a re-buy attempt or a direct replacement chase.
How Livingstone’s price goes past INR 10 cr
This is the musical chairs premium: multiple teams want a similar profile, and the moment two miss earlier targets, the remaining name spikes.
- A realistic INR 10 cr pathway might look like:
- CSK set the tone early because they have already shown their willingness to go big for him.
- LSG are forced into the fight because their overseas finisher requirement is explicit and not easily patched with domestic backups.
- GT/RCB can push the price in short bursts depending on what they miss earlier in the auction.
Livingstone crosses INR 10 cr when CSK and one of LSG/RCB refuse to blink, and KKR’s earlier spending doesn’t reduce it; it often inflates the room’s confidence that this is big money-friendly.
Most likely bidding drivers: CSK, LSG, RCB/GT, with KKR as surprise bidders.
