The battle to rule Mumbai

Shiv Sena’s legacy and future are at stake as parties fight to control BMC

On Wednesday, the Thackeray cousins pledged to reunite, revive the Marathi manoos (people) first agenda, and reinforce the pre-eminence of their parties and their alliance in Mumbai, if not in Maharashtra. The coming together of Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray and their respective parties — Shiv Sena (UBT) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) — 20 years after they parted ways, has been forced by the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, the growing perception (based on electoral performance) that the Shiv Sena led by deputy chief minister of the state Eknath Shinde is the real Sena, and a battle for survival. Mumbai is the big prize on offer as 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra vote on January 15. It is India’s richest municipal corporation, and the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s political survival depends on controlling the BMC.

The BMC election is not just about winning a corporation; it is a political battle that may irrevocably change the character of civic politics and governance in India’s financial capital. (HT Archive)

The BMC election is not just about winning a corporation; it is a political battle that may irrevocably change the character of civic politics and governance in India’s financial capital. The political landscape of Maharashtra — and Mumbai — has changed since the BMC polls were last held in 2017. The Shiv Sena split in 2022, with 44 of its 99 corporators in the BMC siding with Eknath Shinde, who rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership to ally with the BJP. The split in the Sena, a party already on the decline, has enabled the BJP to expand wings in Mumbai, where it has prompted a politics of aspirations laced with Hindutva. Results to the first phase of local elections to the state that were announced recently highlight that the BJP is now in pole position across Maharashtra.

Shinde’s success has already shown the waning power of Brand Thackeray. And the BJP’s success has shown the fading influence of the politics of Marathi ethnic identity and exceptionalism. By coming together, the cousins and their supporters hope the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the MNS will be able to turn back the clock. Ironically, their alliance has allowed Shinde to negotiate hard with the BJP.

Traditionally, Mumbai has always been controlled by the united Shiv Sena, but migration over the decades has changed the profile of the city’s demography; Marathi speakers now constitute less than a third of the city’s population, making the revival of ethnic politics difficult. In the city of dreams, estranged cousins coming together to protect the family name and bastion makes for a great Bollywood script, but it remains to be seen whether the alliance can survive the challenges of contemporary realpolitik.