Countries planning higher fossil fuel production than 2 years ago: Report
A report reveals countries are planning higher fossil fuel production, undermining climate goals, with China, the US, and Russia leading emissions.
Countries are now collectively planning higher fossil fuel production than two years ago, with projected production of fossil fuels in 2030 exceeding levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC by more than 120%, a new report titled ‘The Production Gap’ has found.
Taken together, governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035, and gas production to 2050, than they did in 2023, the report by Stockholm Environment Institute, International Institute for Sustainable Development and Climate Analytics.
Just three countries — China, the US, and the Russian Federation — are responsible for more than half of global extraction-based emissions from all 2022 fossil fuel production.
Planned oil production also continues to increase to 2050. These plans undermine countries’ Paris Agreement commitments, and go against expectations that under current policies global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak before 2030, the report warned.
At COP28 in Dubai, countries had agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in a manner that is “just” and “equitable.” This also includes phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies or subsidies that do not address energy poverty.
“The continued collective failure of governments to curb fossil fuel production and lower global emissions means that future production will need to decline more steeply to compensate. Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century, as the Paris Agreement calls for, will require cutting fossil fuel production and use to the very lowest levels possible,” Monday’s report states.
Achieving required fossil fuel reductions will require deliberate, coordinated policies to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels. While a few major fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to align production plans with national and international climate goals, most still have not.
“As governments submit their third round of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, they must commit to reversing the continued expansion of global fossil fuel production, explicitly integrate plans for reducing production within wider energy transition efforts, and redouble cooperative efforts to ensure a just transition globally,” the report states.
“In 2023, governments formally acknowledged the need to move away from fossil fuels to mitigate climate change – an obligation the International Court of Justice has now clearly emphasized,” said Derik Broekhoff, coordinating lead author of the Production Gap Report and Climate Policy Program Director at SEI’s US Center in a statement.
“But as our report makes clear, while many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago,” he added.
The 2025 Production Gap Report provides new analysis for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
These profiles show that 17 of the 20 featured countries still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel to 2030. Eleven countries--China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, now expect higher production of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 than they had planned in 2023. On the other hand, 6 of the 20 profiled countries are now developing domestic fossil fuel production aligned with national and global net zero targets, up from four in 2023.
HT reported on September 15 that as the UN Climate Conference (COP30) approaches, experts are concerned that climate change is not being prioritised by parties, owing to a number of factors including lack of political consensus, a difficult geopolitical situation and the impact of unilateral trade measures.
The EU is still trying to forge consensus on an ambitious NDC as Germany; France and Hungary have not yet come on board according to those aware of the matter. An EU NDC may still come through ahead of COP30 but experts are concerned that the EU is not taking the leadership that it is normally expected to. This is mainly partly due to the rise of the right wing in certain states which have a different set of priorities; their domestic economic conditions; more investments in defence; US’s withdrawal from Paris Agreement among others, those aware of the matter said.
People aware of the matter have indicated that China is expected to submit an economy-wide NDC soon.
BOX:
Policies on fossil fuels:
India
Based on data from the Ministry of Coal, the report projects coal demand in India is set to rise from 998 Mt/yr in 2024 to 1462 Mt/yr by 2030 (a 46% increase) and 1755 Mt/yr by 2047 (a 76% increase from 2024).
The ministry also assigned 57 coal blocks over the last decade for companies to mine coal for captive use, and auctioned another 132 mines for either captive or non-captive use. The government approved a scheme in January 2024 to achieve 100 Mt of coal gasification by 2030, citing energy security reasons and a move towards promoting cleaner and more efficient energy use.
Further, the Indian government is actively promoting and investing in expanding oil and gas and securing long-term LNG imports. In 2023, India allocated INR 726 billion as producer subsidies to the oil and gas sector through direct budgetary transfers to state-owned oil marketing companies. This year, the government also announced LNG deals with the US, including plans to scrap import taxes on US LNG and to increase the share of gas in India’s energy mix from 6.2% in 2025 to 15% in 2030.
China:
China’s National People’s Congress approved the Energy Law in November 2024 to promote renewable energy development and carbon neutrality. The law also aims to “optimize” coal development and promotes exploration and development of oil and gas resources, with specific emphasis on large-scale unconventional sources. China is by far the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. China’s coal, oil, and gas production is at, or near, an all-time high, exceeding production targets the government set in its 14th Five-Year Plan. The Chinese government continues to invest heavily in oil and gas exploration, spending nearly CNY 93.75 billion (USD 13.3 billion) in 2023, the highest amount in over a decade.
US
Since January, the new US government has announced multiple rollbacks of domestic policies and regulations that address climate change, including rules that limit CO2 emissions from power plants and GHG emissions standards for light- and heavy-duty vehicles. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also proposes to challenge its legal obligation under a 2009 Supreme Court ruling, the “Endangerment Finding”, to regulate GHG emissions. US has also announced its intention to boost coal-fired power production by delaying planned plant closures and reconsidering multiple environmental regulations that affect coal operations. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in July provides new subsidies for metallurgical coal production. The US EPA has extended compliance deadlines for existing oil and gas facilities to meet new limits on emissions of methane and volatile organic compounds.
