Gita Gopinath: ‘ONOE positive, but needs further look’

Economist Gita Gopinath supports synchronized elections, noting potential economic benefits but urges analysis of logistical challenges and costs involved.

NEW DELHI: Simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and the state assemblies as proposed by the 129th Constitution amendment bill and the Union Territories Laws (Amendment) Bill, could give a fillip to economic activity by reducing periods of pre-election uncertainty and shifting public spending towards long-term infrastructure investments, although the exact costs of implementing synchronised elections need further analysis, Gita Gopinath, economist and former First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund has told a parliamentary panel, said people aware of the details.

Gita Gopinath: ‘ONOE positive, but needs further look’

Gopinath is scheduled to address a joint parliamentary committee headed by Bharatiya Janata Party’s PP Chaudhary on Wednesday.

According to people familiar with the details, Gopinath in her written submission, has said that while she considers synchronised polls or one nation, one election (ONOE) as a “positive reform” from the economic point of view, the logistical challenges of holding simultaneous polls will need further inquiry. “She has cited Indonesia’s recent experience of holding fully simultaneous elections and said it would be beneficial to undertake a systematic analysis of the experience of states where simultaneous elections are currently held (along with the LS polls) to assess the cost-effectiveness of the proposal,” said one of the people cited above, speaking on condition of anonymity.

This person added that Gopinath has noted that while official estimates of the direct cost reduction are not available, international experience of such exercises need to be studied. “She said in its first fully simultaneous election in 2024, Indonesia faced record spending, heavy logistical pressures, and unusually high staffing needs, which led to a Constitutional Court directive to partially separate elections from 2029,” added the person.

Indonesia held presidential and legislative polls simultaneously starting from 2019 to 2024 and as per local media reports, the exercise, which involved voters having to fill five different ballot papers, one each for president, national legislature, regional councils, etc. made the process complicated; it led to election workers being overburdened and was a strain on administration even as it cut campaign costs and led to increased voter participation.

In her submission Gopinath is learnt to have said that by reducing the number of separate election windows, synchronisation can reduce periods of uncertainty for both firms and ministries, thereby enabling steadier procurement and investment planning.

“She has observed that ONOE could increase long-term infrastructure investment as election periods in India are often marked by short-term fiscal spending, especially in the form of subsidies or freebies that crowd out longer-term infrastructure investments,” added the first person.

Synchronised elections could help shift public spending towards infrastructure investment and contribute to longer-term economic growth, she has said, and added that the exercise could generate significant efficiency gains by consolidating costs incurred on spending on logistics, security, and equipment which are recurrently spent on staggered elections.

Gopinath, is learnt to have suggested analysing the experience of states such as Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim, where Lok Sabha polls coincide with the state polls to get a clearer view of the logistical challenges, cost-effectiveness, and help share best practices across states.

“She has also pointed out that the JPC will need to examine the issue of ONOE’s impact on federalism and the balance of power…” the first person said.