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What exit polls mean for NDA, INDIA blocs
The polls happened against the backdrop of a special intensive revision or SIR of electoral rolls, prompting loud protests from the Opposition
Exit polls may be indicating a simple and clear win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar assembly elections –– the results will be announced Friday –– but the context has been anything but simple.
The polls happened against the backdrop of a special intensive revision or SIR of electoral rolls, prompting loud protests from the Opposition.
The entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj forced the two mainstream groupings, the NDA and the Grand Alliance (or Mahagathbandhan), to tweak their electoral messaging, focusing more on welfare and development than caste.
Ahead of the polls, the indifferent health of Nitish Kumar, whose Janata Dal (United) has pretty much decided which grouping will rule the state for the past two decades –– Kumar, not surprisingly, has been chief minister for much of this period –– was expected to be an issue, but the GA has not been able to make it a significant one, and voters do not really seem to care.
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Another victory for the NDA in Bihar will consolidate the ruling alliance’s hold in the Hindi belt, a region where the INDIA bloc and the Congress are at its weakest position. If the NDA retains power in Bihar, the ruling alliance would have its government in nine states and UTs in north India. The Opposition runs the government in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Jharkhand in the northern belt.
While Nitish Kumar is likely to be the chief minister if the NDA wins, most analysts believe that at some point in the next five years, the BJP will push for its own chief minister.
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Bihar is the only state in the belt where the BJP has never had a chief minister. It has retained the deputy chief minister’s position for more than 14 years starting with Sushil Modi in 2005. In the current dispensation, both deputy chief ministers, Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Sinha, are from the BJP.
For now though, Kumar, despite concerns over his health, has retained his popularity. Ground reports indicate that a large section of the NDA’s voters, particularly the extremely backward classes and women trust Kumar. The fact that the NDA is united in 2025 –– in 2020, the JD(U)’s strike rate was dented badly by Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) –– could result in a strong showing by the JD(U).
Another loss in north India can mean a major setback for the Opposition, particularly the Congress. In the north Indian states, where the Congress has only one CM (Himachal Pradesh), the Congress is also worried about its strike rate. It also puts pressure on Rahul Gandhi.
At an election rally last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi quipped that the Congress has become a “liability for its partners”.
A failure in Bihar would also mean a setback for Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition — or the main challenger to the PM. Since 2024, the Congress has not been able to win seven of the nine elections: Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Haryana, Maharashtra and Bihar. The INDIA bloc has won only two polls: Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand, with alliance partners National Conference and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha taking the lead in the two states, with the Congress playing a minor supporting role.
