India can lead the world in carbon sequestration

Addressing our climate challenges requires a significant emphasis on large-scale direct removal of atmospheric CO2

The recently released Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report — the AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 — revealed an uncomfortable truth: The world is not on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 needed to keep the planet from warming beyond a liveable 1.5°C. Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels have increased every year except in 2020 (due to the pandemic-induced lockdown), and average about 36 billion tonnes per year. A 95% reduction in emissions by 2050 is necessary to achieve net zero; yet estimates forecast a mere 20% reduction.

Only an urgent system-wide transformation to decarbonise global energy production and transport sectors would put us on such a track, and this transformation must occur within the next seven years. (Shutterstock)

Only an urgent system-wide transformation to decarbonise global energy production and transport sectors would put us on such a track, and this transformation must occur within the next seven years. Unfortunately, despite an increase in the pace of transition towards clean energy, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, such a transformation appears untenable. Fossil fuels provide over 80% of the annual global energy supply and have done so for over 100 years. An orderly transition to low-carbon energy will take more than 30 years. Meanwhile, to keep the planet from warming beyond 1.5°C, about 10 billion tonnes of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere, starting around 2030, increasing to about 25 billion tonnes per year by 2050.

One possible solution lies in the deployment of atmospheric CO2-removal technologies. The Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) and Direct Air Capture and Carbon Sequestration (DACCS) are two much-touted industrial methods that inject concentrated atmospheric CO2 underground and sequester it. However, these processes are expensive and not easy to scale. It is expected that BiCRS and DACCS combined will remove only about 300 million tonnes of CO2 in 2030, making no dent in its atmospheric inventory.

To substantially reduce atmospheric CO2 requires emulating or speeding up natural processes. India has vast natural resources and can lead in developing and implementing nature-based solutions to remove atmospheric CO2. Such solutions will help India catch up and exceed its Nationally Determined Contributions pledged in the Paris Accord. They will improve soil fertility, especially in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, by providing nutrients to soils and increasing soil carbon content, which has been depleted due to intensive agriculture practices.

At Dartmouth, we are at the forefront of developing strategies that have the potential to remove billions of tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere every year. Our work has shown us the importance of thinking broadly and creatively about possible solutions to slow the relentless rise of atmospheric CO2. Strategies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere should be aggressively implemented along with ongoing efforts at decarbonisation.

It is time for policymakers in India and around the world to put their full weight behind these strategies, and to acknowledge that addressing climate challenges requires a significant emphasis on large-scale direct removal of atmospheric CO2. This will be good for India, and good for the planet.

Mukul Sharma teaches at Dartmouth College

The views expressed are personal