Keeping up with Bihar: Can Opposition replicate UP strategy amid secularism row?
The BJP’s key Bihar ally, chief minister Nitish Kumar, and his Janata Dal (U) or JD(U), swear by socialism and secularism
In June, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale sparked controversy with his suggestion to review and remove the inclusion of the words “socialism” and “secularism” in the Constitution’s Preamble during the Emergency. Speaking at Delhi’s Ambedkar International Centre during an event marking 50 years of the imposition of the Emergency, Hosabale pointed out he was making the statement in a building named after the head of the drafting committee of the Constitution, which did not have these terms in its Preamble until the 1970s.
Hosabale’s suggestion came even as the Supreme Court in October 2024 called “secularism” and “socialism” as integral to the Constitution’s basic framework, and months before the assembly elections in Bihar, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is yet to form a government on its own.
Ahead of the 2015 Bihar polls, RSS leader Mohan Bhagwat’s suggestion of a review of the reservations is believed to have hurt the BJP’s prospects. The BJP’s key Bihar ally, chief minister Nitish Kumar, and his Janata Dal (U) or JD(U), swear by socialism and secularism.
Electoral impact
In Uttar Pradesh, the fear of changes to the Constitution hurt the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with a sizable section of Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) backing the Samajwadi Party (SP), which contested the polls with the Congress. The Congress was the preferred party of the Dalits until the late 1980s.
In 2024, the Dalits appeared determined to thwart the BJP’s efforts to win over 400 seats, which they believed would enable it to amend the Constitution.
The BJP does not appear to be worried about any adverse electoral impact of Hosabale’s suggestion. Union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan backed Hosabale, citing India’s core cultural values. He said Congress added secularism during the Emergency. Chauhan maintained that socialism is redundant as equality is part of the country’s basic ethos.
Former JD(U) leader Shambhu Sharan Srivastava said the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could replicate the Uttar Pradesh strategy in Bihar. He said RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has started raising the issue, connecting the government benefits, including quota and free ration, with socialism. “It is resonating with people running from pillar to post to get their new voters’ cards [as per the electoral roll revision].”
Srivastava called Congress’s move to appoint a Mahadalit as the Bihar chief a masterstroke. “Congress leader [Rahul] Gandhi has also visited Bihar 10 times, evoking interest in Dalits and EBCs disillusioned with JD(U)...the news of Nitish Kumar’s sickness has started spreading in villages also,” Srivastava said this vote bank was looking at Congress as an option, as it would not vote for the RJD or the BJP.
Yadav and Gandhi could turn the tide by replaying the Uttar Pradesh strategy over the possibility of the removal of socialism and secularism from the Constitution’s preamble. A section of voters remain suspicious about the BJP’s intentions vis-à-vis the Constitution.
The social justice plank led to the emergence of leaders such as Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar, the land of socialist leader Jayaprakash Narayan, and Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh.
Political analyst Abhay Kumar Singh attributed the BJP’s dismal show in the 2015 Bihar polls to the JD(U) and RJD alliance, underplaying the impact of Bhagwat’s comments on a review of reservation policy. He added JD(U) and RJD alliance’s base votes of Kurmis, Yadavs, and Muslims have since broken.
Unlike Uttar Pradesh, Dalits are not a cohesive political force in Bihar as they lack leaders like Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, who made them an influential vote bank. Dalits in Bihar are fragmented. Bihar’s Dalit leaders Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi are both with the BJP-led alliance and have the support of their caste votes. The RJD and the Congress have been getting support from non-Paswans and non-Manjhi Dalit votes.
Besides building caste-based social coalitions, the BJP is known to divide the votes against them. The Congress is on a path of recovery and is an option for Dalits, if they move away from Nitish Kumar. However, BSP and Azad Samaj Party are in the fray but they may not attract their much support.
The only Brahmin-led party, Jan Suraaj, of Prashant Kishor, is contesting its first election. He is sparing none in his attacks, but he could damage the prospects of the RJD alliance as well as the BJP by attracting the Brahmin votes.
In June, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale sparked controversy with his suggestion to review and remove the inclusion of the words “socialism” and “secularism” in the Constitution’s Preamble during the Emergency. Speaking at Delhi’s Ambedkar International Centre during an event marking 50 years of the imposition of the Emergency, Hosabale pointed out he was making the statement in a building named after the head of the drafting committee of the Constitution, which did not have these terms in its Preamble until the 1970s.
Hosabale’s suggestion came even as the Supreme Court in October 2024 called “secularism” and “socialism” as integral to the Constitution’s basic framework, and months before the assembly elections in Bihar, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is yet to form a government on its own.
Ahead of the 2015 Bihar polls, RSS leader Mohan Bhagwat’s suggestion of a review of the reservations is believed to have hurt the BJP’s prospects. The BJP’s key Bihar ally, chief minister Nitish Kumar, and his Janata Dal (U) or JD(U), swear by socialism and secularism.
Electoral impact
In Uttar Pradesh, the fear of changes to the Constitution hurt the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with a sizable section of Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) backing the Samajwadi Party (SP), which contested the polls with the Congress. The Congress was the preferred party of the Dalits until the late 1980s.
In 2024, the Dalits appeared determined to thwart the BJP’s efforts to win over 400 seats, which they believed would enable it to amend the Constitution.
{{/usCountry}}In 2024, the Dalits appeared determined to thwart the BJP’s efforts to win over 400 seats, which they believed would enable it to amend the Constitution.
{{/usCountry}}The BJP does not appear to be worried about any adverse electoral impact of Hosabale’s suggestion. Union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan backed Hosabale, citing India’s core cultural values. He said Congress added secularism during the Emergency. Chauhan maintained that socialism is redundant as equality is part of the country’s basic ethos.
{{/usCountry}}The BJP does not appear to be worried about any adverse electoral impact of Hosabale’s suggestion. Union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan backed Hosabale, citing India’s core cultural values. He said Congress added secularism during the Emergency. Chauhan maintained that socialism is redundant as equality is part of the country’s basic ethos.
{{/usCountry}}Former JD(U) leader Shambhu Sharan Srivastava said the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could replicate the Uttar Pradesh strategy in Bihar. He said RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has started raising the issue, connecting the government benefits, including quota and free ration, with socialism. “It is resonating with people running from pillar to post to get their new voters’ cards [as per the electoral roll revision].”
{{/usCountry}}Former JD(U) leader Shambhu Sharan Srivastava said the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could replicate the Uttar Pradesh strategy in Bihar. He said RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has started raising the issue, connecting the government benefits, including quota and free ration, with socialism. “It is resonating with people running from pillar to post to get their new voters’ cards [as per the electoral roll revision].”
{{/usCountry}}Srivastava called Congress’s move to appoint a Mahadalit as the Bihar chief a masterstroke. “Congress leader [Rahul] Gandhi has also visited Bihar 10 times, evoking interest in Dalits and EBCs disillusioned with JD(U)...the news of Nitish Kumar’s sickness has started spreading in villages also,” Srivastava said this vote bank was looking at Congress as an option, as it would not vote for the RJD or the BJP.
Yadav and Gandhi could turn the tide by replaying the Uttar Pradesh strategy over the possibility of the removal of socialism and secularism from the Constitution’s preamble. A section of voters remain suspicious about the BJP’s intentions vis-à-vis the Constitution.
The social justice plank led to the emergence of leaders such as Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar, the land of socialist leader Jayaprakash Narayan, and Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh.
Political analyst Abhay Kumar Singh attributed the BJP’s dismal show in the 2015 Bihar polls to the JD(U) and RJD alliance, underplaying the impact of Bhagwat’s comments on a review of reservation policy. He added JD(U) and RJD alliance’s base votes of Kurmis, Yadavs, and Muslims have since broken.
Unlike Uttar Pradesh, Dalits are not a cohesive political force in Bihar as they lack leaders like Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, who made them an influential vote bank. Dalits in Bihar are fragmented. Bihar’s Dalit leaders Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi are both with the BJP-led alliance and have the support of their caste votes. The RJD and the Congress have been getting support from non-Paswans and non-Manjhi Dalit votes.
Besides building caste-based social coalitions, the BJP is known to divide the votes against them. The Congress is on a path of recovery and is an option for Dalits, if they move away from Nitish Kumar. However, BSP and Azad Samaj Party are in the fray but they may not attract their much support.
The only Brahmin-led party, Jan Suraaj, of Prashant Kishor, is contesting its first election. He is sparing none in his attacks, but he could damage the prospects of the RJD alliance as well as the BJP by attracting the Brahmin votes.
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