The Taste by Vir Sanghvi: Dalai Lama confirms the institution will continue. But challenges lie ahead

The Dalai Lama believed that he should be succeeded by a democratic leader elected by Tibetans.

So, there will be a Dalai Lama even after the incumbent dies. Ending years of speculation, the Dalai Lama announced this week that heeding appeals from millions of Tibetans he has come around to the view that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue. A successor will be found.

After the Dalai Lama dies, it will not be easy to find his successor.(Unsplash)

There was a subtext to the announcement. The Chinese who control Tibet and routinely abuse the Dalai Lama are eager to either abolish the institution or to appoint a puppet as the next Dalai Lama. In the circumstances, the Dalai Lama may have had no choice but to declare that the post would outlive him and that the search for his successor would be conducted by monks who were not under the influence of the Chinese government.

But this may not have been what the Dalai Lama really wanted. Twenty years ago, when I interviewed him for the HT he said that he could well be the last Dalai Lama. The world was changing and the concept of the Dalai Lama as a divinely selected monk who functioned as a sort of king had begun to seem out of date. He believed that he should be succeeded by a democratic leader elected by Tibetans. (In this case Tibetans in exile; the Chinese are not big on elections.)

In the period after the Chinese took over Tibet, the Panchen Lama, regarded as being second in rank only to the Dalai Lama died and a search was launched to find his reincarnation. Monks did find such a boy and the Dalai Lama blessed the selection.

But the Chinese launched their own search and came up with another set of candidates, one of whom was selected by a process that amounted to drawing lots. (In this case it was picking sticks though the process was criticised as being rigged.)

Worse was to follow. The Panchen Lama chosen by the monks and the Dalai Lama was picked up by the Chinese army and taken to an undisclosed destination. He has rarely been seen since. The Panchen Lama appointed by the Chinese however is very visible and regularly sings the praises of the Beijing regime.

It was fears that this could happen again with his own reincarnation that prompted the Dalai Lama to propose that the line should end with him. Now that he had changed his mind, the way ahead is far from clear.

In recent years, the Dalai Lama had already begun to moderate his original no-more-Dalai-Lama position saying that he had been referring to a situation when he could return to Tibet. If that did not happen , he said, the process of democratising the leadership of Tibetans would continue but the Dalai Lama would also remain as a spiritual guide.

The recent announcement seems to move along the same path. But he must know how difficult it will be to install a new Dalai Lama. For a start, the monks will have to find a reincarnation within the Tibetan community in exile. It is unlikely that the Chinese will let them look within Chinese-controlled Tibet.

The monk tasked with guiding the search usually meditates and says he receives divine signals telling him where to look. Then, after a possible reincarnation has been identified he is put through many tests and he is expected to show familiarity with objects left behind by the last Dalai Lama.

The current Dalai Lama was found by such a process. But it is even more complicated than it sounds because 20 years ago the Dalai Lama told me that he believed he was a reincarnation of a previous Dalai Lama — probably the Fifth Dalai Lama — whose life he kept dreaming about. This would suggest that he was not, in fact, the reincarnation of his immediate predecessor. On the other hand, aren’t all Dalai Lamas reincarnations of the same person, the first Dalai Lama?

Buddhist theology is not always easy for outsiders to understand which will make it easier for the Chinese to offer their own interpretation and to find their own reincarnation as they did with the Panchen Lama. Equally they may decide that the line ended with this Dalai Lama and treat all future Dalai Lamas as pretenders.

In the years since the Dalai Lama fled to India, China has grown enormously in wealth and global power. That Tibet should still be an international issue today is mainly down to one man and his efforts: the current Dalai Lama. Once he is out of the picture the international community may find it easier to ignore the next Dalai Lama and to toe the Chinese line.

India will stand by the Tibetans in exile and by the Dalai Lama’s chosen successor. But will the rest of the world?

It seems less and less likely.