China announces 7-10% cut in GHG emissions by 2035; experts call it modest
China will also expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts
New Delhi:
China on Wednesday announced an update to its carbon dioxide emissions reduction target (or Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC) at the United Nations Climate Summit , positioning itself as the global leader in tackling the climate crisis ahead of the big UN Climate meeting (COP30) in Brazil, although experts adjudged the NDC itself as extremely modest.
On Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China, world’s largest polluter in terms of CO2 emissions, will cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10% from peak levels and increase non-fossil fuel energy consumption to over 30% of the total energy consumption by 2025. He also called on countries to adopt low-carbon growth.
China will also expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts. Xi added that the total forest stock volume will surpass 24 billion cubic metres. China’s NDC suggests emissions will peak before 2035, although some assessments show them as having already peaked.
Experts said the NDC, while not being in alignment with the steep cuts required to meet the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement, still has major significance because of China’s posturing in climate action. India is yet to update its NDC, and it is not clear whether it will do so before COP30, although the general expectation is that it will.
Signalling commitment
“China’s updated NDC is an important step forward, one that can drive a deeper shift toward a cleaner, more sustainable energy future. China’s transition is moving into deep water, where difficult policy choices must be made just as national emissions are poised to peak. What matters now is preparing for the post-peak era so any plateau is short and decline becomes structural. China’s new NDC won’t solve everything, but it signals commitment and that signal is what unlocks capital and speeds a shorter plateau and faster structural decline in emissions,” said Ember’s senior analyst for China, Muyi Yang.
In December , the Biden administration submitted its NDC 3.0, but President Donald Trump, who took office a month later, has since withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement.
The European Union (EU) has submitted a “statement of intent” but not an NDC. The EU plans to submit the next NDC with an indicative 2035 target of reduction in net GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions expected to be between 66.25% and 72.5% compared to 1990 levels. Environmental groups have criticised the range, saying it is not as ambitious as they expected. The EU is still to forge a consensus on an ambitious NDC as Germany, France, and Hungary have not yet come on board.
An EU NDC may come through ahead of the COP30 in November. Experts are concerned that the EU is not taking the leadership that it is normally expected to and attribute this, in part, to the rise of the right wing in certain states, which have a different set of priorities, their domestic economic conditions, and more investments in defence.
Counters Trump’s ‘con job’ claim on climate change
President Xi’s speech at UNGA also presented a counter to US President Trump’s speech on Tuesday where the latter said “climate change is the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion”.
In his speech, Xi said green and low-carbon transformation is the trend of the times. He added that the international community should take the right direction with firm confidence and move forward with new NDCs and inject more positive energy into global climate governance cooperation. He also said countries should advance the global green transformation by upholding fairness and equity and fully respect the development rights of developing countries. Finally, he said countries should strengthen coordination in green technologies and industries.
“China’s unveiling of its NDC is a show of commitment to the multilateral climate regime, and the desire to keep advancing ambition of shared climate goals. With its role as a dominant electrostate (one where electricity is the dominant source of energy), China’s actions will shape the coming decades in energy, as the US retreats further into fossil fuel entrenchment. China’s targets could have been more ambitious, but its real world investments in low carbon technologies — domestically and globally — will have an undeniably positive impact on global emissions,” said Avantika Goswami, Programme Manager, Climate Change, Centre for Science and Environment.
But China’s target falls far short of what would be required to align with the Paris Agreement of at least a 30% cut from 2024 levels, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an independent research organisation said on Thursday. China’s current clean energy trends, policies and targets are likely to enable the country to reduce emissions more than it’s prepared to commit to at the moment., but by setting the emission reduction target on the basis of an undefined peak level, China is leaving space for emissions to increase from current level before their peak, CREA warned.
China is the largest emitter and contributed around 80% emissions growth over the last decade ; its emissions have an outsized impact on global warming.
Under the pathway of China’s new NDC, China alone could use up almost the entire carbon budget to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees C (over pre-industrial levels), CREA added.
“The targets that Xi Jinping announced today brought little clarity on China’s future emission pathway, as simply maintaining current rates of clean energy growth can deliver much larger reductions in emissions. The headline target falls far short of what is needed for alignment with the goals of the Paris Agreement, while leaving the base year for the emission reductions undefined kept the door open to near-term increases in emissions. This NDC should be seen as a floor, not a ceiling, for China’s ambition,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, Co-Founder and Lead Analyst, CREA.
Further, China is currently off track for a number of key climate targets for 2025. Notably, these include the carbon and energy intensity targets, strictly controlling new coal power projects and coal consumption, and the share of energy consumption growth met by renewables, the analysis has flagged.
Difficult year for climate
In spite of a weak NDC, China’s commitment has brought hope to the international community in an extremely difficult year.
“China is delivering clean, reliable, and affordable energy at an unprecedented scale. Its updated NDC shows this acceleration of climate action, manufacturing, and deployment will continue, and increase. The scale of investment implied by these energy targets is unprecedented. It will lower costs and drive innovation in China and around the world, which is essential if we are to see the further step changes in clean energy deployment we need,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in a statement.
Following Wednesday’s climate summit, among large GHG emitters only Australia, Brazil, China, Japan, Canada and Nigeria have updated their NDCs. This falls far short of achieving Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2°C (preferably 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
Some NDCs are expected before or during COP30, to be held in Belem, Brazil from November 10 to 21. These include EU’s NDC. Government officials in India have indicated that India may also update its NDC ahead of that, but a final call depending on circumstances is yet to be taken.
“We cannot sugarcoat it: these new climate plans do not put us anywhere near on track for a safe future. The lack of ambition so far from most major emitters, barring a few, underscores the immense political challenge countries face in transforming their entire economy. Yet vulnerable countries continue to step up with bold climate leadership,” said Ani Dasgupta, President &and CEO, World Resources Institute.
“Countries’ last round of NDCs put the world on track for up to 2.8°C of warming, already exposing billions of people to more frequent and intense heatwaves, wildfires, storms and floods. By 2035, the world needs to cut 31.2 gigatons of emissions to stay on track for 1.5°C, or 20.2 Gt for 2°C. The NDCs and announcements so far would reduce that by just 2 gigatons — only 6% of what’s needed for 1.5°C and 10% for 2°C. By COP30, it is critical that all countries deliver the most ambitious possible climate plans, especially the major emitters still missing from the table,” he added.
