Explained | Jair Bolsonaro convicted of 2022 coup case. What's next? Will he go to prison?

The charges against Jair Bolsonaro carry a maximum sentence of 43 years in prison, but the court considered his age and ongoing health issues in sentencing him.

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been convicted in the 2022 attempted coup case and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison.

Former Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro also instigated the January 8 riots in 2023 that were meant to force a military takeover.(AFP)

Bolsonaro attempted to stage a coup to stay in the President's office after losing the re-election in 2022. He is the first former leader of the country found guilty of trying to overturn election results in Latin America's largest economy.

However, Bolsonaro has repeatedly denied doing any such thing.

Now that the Supreme Court has convicted and sentenced the former president, does it mean he will go to prison? What was the case against Bolsonaro, and what happens next?

The coup case

Jair Bolsonaro was charged with five crimes, including an attempted coup, after losing the 2022 presidential race to the current President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors also charged him with participation in an armed criminal organisation, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, damage qualified by violence, and deterioration of listed heritage.

The Attorney General presented evidence to show that Bolsonaro gathered his Cabinet and military officials at the time to discuss an emergency decree that would have nullified the election results in a bid to probe unproven electoral fraud claims.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case, said the former president executed a series of acts from 2021 to January 8, 2023, constituting the attempted coup. During this period, Bolsonaro raised questions over Brazil's electronic voting system, drafted an order to nullify the election results, and instigated the January 8 riots in 2023 that were meant to force a military takeover.

Four of the five justices on the Supreme Court bench convicted Bolsonaro on Thursday, sentencing him to 27 years and three months in prison.

Though the charges on the 70-year-old carry a maximum sentence of 43 years in prison, the top court considered Bolsonaro's age and ongoing health issues in determining the sentence awarded to him.

Will Bolsonaro go to jail?

No. Jair Bolsonaro will not go to prison now; rather, he will remain under house arrest.

While the Supreme Court has announced the sentence for the former president, it has up to 60 days to publish the complete ruling. Once that happens, Bolsonaro's legal team will have a five-day period to file motions seeking clarifications.

Rafael Mafei, lawyer and law professor at the University of São Paulo and ESPM University, said, “It’s unlikely, but not impossible, that there will be appeals to the full Supreme Court."

He further affirmed that the defense team will try because they should.

According to the top court's jurisprudence, an appeal can be accepted by the full court only if there are at least two dissenting votes in a ruling. In Bolsonaro's case, there was only one Justice who denied the charges and called for the ex-president's acquittal, The Associated Press reported.

However, Bolsonaro could go to prison once a firm sentence is established. But it is unlikely that he would be sent to a regular prison. Being a former president of the country, Bolsonaro has the right to special incarceration, which could be at the Federal Police's main building in Brasilia.

What's next in Brazil?

Jair Bolsonaro continues to remain a powerful political figure in Brazil despite his conviction in the coup case. However, his sentencing could pressurise him into selecting a political heir to replace Lula in the 2026 general elections.

Allied lawmakers could also attempt to seek some amnesty for Bolsonaro through Congress.

In a separate case, Bolsonaro was also barred from running for office until 2030 due to abuse of power, a charge based on his unproven claims about the Brazilian voting system.