Kim Jong Un Wants a Military That’s More Than Just Nukes—and Russia Can Help
The North Korean leader, taking lessons from his troops fighting in Ukraine, faces a tall task upgrading the nation’s Soviet-era conventional weaponry.
SEOUL—Kim Jong Un, seizing on his closer ties with Russia, has recently begun signaling a major policy shift: beefing up North Korea’s outdated conventional arms alongside its nuclear arsenal.
The strategic pivot faces tall odds for the impoverished country, whose massive conventional military largely relies on Soviet-era equipment. But Kim sees a rare opportunity—and need—to upgrade his battle tanks, rifles, air-defense systems, battleships and more with Russian assistance.
Kim’s new policy proclamation was delivered during a recent inspection of a North Korean institute specializing in armored vehicles. He declared an intention to adopt a policy of “simultaneously pushing forward the building of nuclear forces and conventional armed forces” at the next major meeting of his Workers’ Party, expected early next year.
In a lengthy policy speech on Sunday, Kim emphasized the need to improve the combat performance of North Korea’s conventional military hardware and strengthen the country’s naval forces.
“These constitute a transformation of great significance,” Kim said.
The shift in priorities, South Korean officials said last week, may be influenced by the lessons Kim took from dispatching roughly 15,000 North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region to fight Ukraine. There, soldiers needed the sort of military hardware that North Korea has largely neglected over the decades as it has gone all-in on nuclear technology.
Being able to diversify North Korea’s military priorities speaks to a twin reality for Kim, the 41-year-old dictator.
On one hand, the move demonstrates North Korea’s confidence that the country’s nuclear advances can’t be reversed—and the cash-strapped nation can focus on other things. On the other, Kim’s nuclear program has deterred a foreign attack, though should a conflict emerge, his nation’s conventional forces would be greatly outmatched against the U.S. and South Korea.
“North Korea made the judgment that nuclear forces alone have limitations as a deterrent,” said Hong Min, a senior North Korea researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-affiliated think tank in Seoul.
Closing the gap won’t be easy for Pyongyang. U.S. and South Korean forces occupy the first and fifth spots, respectively, in conventional military power, according to Global Firepower, a website publishing annual rankings of military strength across dozens of factors.
North Korea ranks 34th.
A dramatic transformation
Until now, Kim believed his nuclear forces—which he calls a “treasured sword” protecting the country—offered the ultimate protection. But wars involving nuclear powers such as Russia have likely shown him the first line of attack would be conventional forces.
North Korea’s limitations in funding its military in a war and its “overwhelmingly inferior” naval and air-force capabilities have been a weakness Kim hasn’t been able to address, said Jeon Kyung-joo, a security researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, or KIDA, a state-funded think tank.
But this is where Kim’s tightening bonds with Russian President Vladimir Putin can help. Without Russia, North Korea would be isolated, struggling to find key materials or parts; the country’s weapons factories would have far fewer reasons to churn around the clock.
In April, KIDA estimated that the Kim regime generated economic benefits from dispatched troops and weapons exports to Russia equivalent to roughly $20 billion since the start of the Ukraine war—a sum that rivals North Korea’s annual gross domestic product. Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow has led to significant growth in manufacturing, construction and mining, officials in Seoul say.
“North Korea’s conventional capabilities could transform dramatically depending on Russian assistance,” Jeon said. “The U.S. and South Korea could face an increasingly difficult and long fight in a war scenario.”
The Kim regime has one of the most militarized economies in the world, spending roughly a third of its gross national income on defense, according to South Korean estimates.
Since last fall, North Korean troops have helped Russia push Ukrainian forces back in the Kursk region—with Kim repeatedly imploring his military to prepare for a “real war” over the past year. In addition, Pyongyang is supplying roughly half of the artillery munitions Russia is using against Ukraine, Kyiv intelligence officials said earlier this year. In return, North Korea has received cash, technology transfers, food and oil.
Russia’s need for munitions and troops in its war against Ukraine has opened the door for North Korea to receive technical capabilities and financial assistance that will revitalize Pyongyang’s defense industry, said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the Washington, D.C.-based American Enterprise Institute who researches North Korea.
“With Russian help, North Korea is now more confident in its defense capabilities and sources of revenue,” Eberstadt said.
New upgrades
A major push to improve tanks, rifles and air defenses is likely to be codified by early next year. During a prior party gathering in 2021, Kim outlined a five-year weapons plan that contained strikingly different priorities: intercontinental ballistic missiles that fly farther, miniaturized nuclear warheads and a nuclear-powered submarine, among other large-scale weaponry.
In April, North Korea unveiled its largest-ever warship as part of Kim’s attempts to modernize his decades-old navy. A second warship capsized in May during a risky “side launch” maneuver, but Kim said the restored ship would undergo testing next year. South Korean officials said the two warships were built in just a year, a rapid development to Pyongyang’s naval forces that was likely possible due to Russian help, analysts say.
Observing the aerial attacks and drone warfare in the Ukraine war, Kim has accelerated efforts to produce drones and earlier this year inspected new reconnaissance and suicide drones. Last week, Kim oversaw a performance test of attack drones, stressing that AI capabilities should be a priority for his armed forces. Moscow is providing Pyongyang with drone technology, training its drone pilots and helping set up local production lines, Ukrainian intelligence officials have said.
The biggest vulnerability North Korea faces against the U.S. and South Korea is air defense, for which Russia has already provided equipment along with antiaircraft missiles, according to a May report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team. Last month, Kim oversaw the test-firing of new air-defense missiles, though it is unclear if they involved Russian technology.
To be sure, North Korea isn’t likely to halt or abandon its nuclear program either. Earlier this month, Pyongyang tested a new rocket engine for nuclear-capable weapons, which military experts see as an introductory step ahead of unveiling its yet-to-be-seen “Hwasong-20” ICBM.
Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com
SEOUL—Kim Jong Un, seizing on his closer ties with Russia, has recently begun signaling a major policy shift: beefing up North Korea’s outdated conventional arms alongside its nuclear arsenal.
The strategic pivot faces tall odds for the impoverished country, whose massive conventional military largely relies on Soviet-era equipment. But Kim sees a rare opportunity—and need—to upgrade his battle tanks, rifles, air-defense systems, battleships and more with Russian assistance.
Kim’s new policy proclamation was delivered during a recent inspection of a North Korean institute specializing in armored vehicles. He declared an intention to adopt a policy of “simultaneously pushing forward the building of nuclear forces and conventional armed forces” at the next major meeting of his Workers’ Party, expected early next year.
In a lengthy policy speech on Sunday, Kim emphasized the need to improve the combat performance of North Korea’s conventional military hardware and strengthen the country’s naval forces.
{{/usCountry}}In a lengthy policy speech on Sunday, Kim emphasized the need to improve the combat performance of North Korea’s conventional military hardware and strengthen the country’s naval forces.
{{/usCountry}}“These constitute a transformation of great significance,” Kim said.
{{/usCountry}}“These constitute a transformation of great significance,” Kim said.
{{/usCountry}}The shift in priorities, South Korean officials said last week, may be influenced by the lessons Kim took from dispatching roughly 15,000 North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region to fight Ukraine. There, soldiers needed the sort of military hardware that North Korea has largely neglected over the decades as it has gone all-in on nuclear technology.
The shift in priorities, South Korean officials said last week, may be influenced by the lessons Kim took from dispatching roughly 15,000 North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region to fight Ukraine. There, soldiers needed the sort of military hardware that North Korea has largely neglected over the decades as it has gone all-in on nuclear technology.
Being able to diversify North Korea’s military priorities speaks to a twin reality for Kim, the 41-year-old dictator.
On one hand, the move demonstrates North Korea’s confidence that the country’s nuclear advances can’t be reversed—and the cash-strapped nation can focus on other things. On the other, Kim’s nuclear program has deterred a foreign attack, though should a conflict emerge, his nation’s conventional forces would be greatly outmatched against the U.S. and South Korea.
“North Korea made the judgment that nuclear forces alone have limitations as a deterrent,” said Hong Min, a senior North Korea researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-affiliated think tank in Seoul.
Closing the gap won’t be easy for Pyongyang. U.S. and South Korean forces occupy the first and fifth spots, respectively, in conventional military power, according to Global Firepower, a website publishing annual rankings of military strength across dozens of factors.
North Korea ranks 34th.
A dramatic transformation
Until now, Kim believed his nuclear forces—which he calls a “treasured sword” protecting the country—offered the ultimate protection. But wars involving nuclear powers such as Russia have likely shown him the first line of attack would be conventional forces.
North Korea’s limitations in funding its military in a war and its “overwhelmingly inferior” naval and air-force capabilities have been a weakness Kim hasn’t been able to address, said Jeon Kyung-joo, a security researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, or KIDA, a state-funded think tank.
But this is where Kim’s tightening bonds with Russian President Vladimir Putin can help. Without Russia, North Korea would be isolated, struggling to find key materials or parts; the country’s weapons factories would have far fewer reasons to churn around the clock.
In April, KIDA estimated that the Kim regime generated economic benefits from dispatched troops and weapons exports to Russia equivalent to roughly $20 billion since the start of the Ukraine war—a sum that rivals North Korea’s annual gross domestic product. Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow has led to significant growth in manufacturing, construction and mining, officials in Seoul say.
“North Korea’s conventional capabilities could transform dramatically depending on Russian assistance,” Jeon said. “The U.S. and South Korea could face an increasingly difficult and long fight in a war scenario.”
The Kim regime has one of the most militarized economies in the world, spending roughly a third of its gross national income on defense, according to South Korean estimates.
Since last fall, North Korean troops have helped Russia push Ukrainian forces back in the Kursk region—with Kim repeatedly imploring his military to prepare for a “real war” over the past year. In addition, Pyongyang is supplying roughly half of the artillery munitions Russia is using against Ukraine, Kyiv intelligence officials said earlier this year. In return, North Korea has received cash, technology transfers, food and oil.
Russia’s need for munitions and troops in its war against Ukraine has opened the door for North Korea to receive technical capabilities and financial assistance that will revitalize Pyongyang’s defense industry, said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the Washington, D.C.-based American Enterprise Institute who researches North Korea.
“With Russian help, North Korea is now more confident in its defense capabilities and sources of revenue,” Eberstadt said.
New upgrades
A major push to improve tanks, rifles and air defenses is likely to be codified by early next year. During a prior party gathering in 2021, Kim outlined a five-year weapons plan that contained strikingly different priorities: intercontinental ballistic missiles that fly farther, miniaturized nuclear warheads and a nuclear-powered submarine, among other large-scale weaponry.
In April, North Korea unveiled its largest-ever warship as part of Kim’s attempts to modernize his decades-old navy. A second warship capsized in May during a risky “side launch” maneuver, but Kim said the restored ship would undergo testing next year. South Korean officials said the two warships were built in just a year, a rapid development to Pyongyang’s naval forces that was likely possible due to Russian help, analysts say.
Observing the aerial attacks and drone warfare in the Ukraine war, Kim has accelerated efforts to produce drones and earlier this year inspected new reconnaissance and suicide drones. Last week, Kim oversaw a performance test of attack drones, stressing that AI capabilities should be a priority for his armed forces. Moscow is providing Pyongyang with drone technology, training its drone pilots and helping set up local production lines, Ukrainian intelligence officials have said.
The biggest vulnerability North Korea faces against the U.S. and South Korea is air defense, for which Russia has already provided equipment along with antiaircraft missiles, according to a May report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team. Last month, Kim oversaw the test-firing of new air-defense missiles, though it is unclear if they involved Russian technology.
To be sure, North Korea isn’t likely to halt or abandon its nuclear program either. Earlier this month, Pyongyang tested a new rocket engine for nuclear-capable weapons, which military experts see as an introductory step ahead of unveiling its yet-to-be-seen “Hwasong-20” ICBM.
Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com
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