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What Ukraine peace deal might look like: 5,000 sq km to Russia under Trump plan? Details leaked, explained
Russia, which invaded Ukraine in 2022, controls about 116,000 sq km — about 19% of the country
Russia could HAVE around 5,000 square kilometres of territory added to its map if its war in Ukraine ends as per the peace plan brokered by US President Donald Trump, leaked details of the plan show.
Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff visited Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday about a possible agreement.
Where peace plan stands now: A leaked set of the US draft peace proposals emerged last week, but European powers made counter-proposals. US and Ukrainian officials have held talks since then in Geneva and Florida, without providing details of further discussions.
So what might a peace deal look like, and who will get what territory?
Who controls how much territory?
- Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, controls about 116,000 square km currently part of Ukraine, according to the Russian military. That's about 19% of Ukraine.
- There's a stalemate there. This 19% is just one percentage point more than two years ago.
- But Russia's advance has now picked up pace, though. It is at its fastest in 2025 since the start of the war, even according to pro-Ukrainian battle maps.
Which regions are at centre of war/deal?
Russia says Crimea, which its annexed in 2014, and the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (parts of Donbas region) are now legally part of Russia. As are the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, it adds.
The United Nations has called these annexations illegal under international law. Most of the international community also does not recognise these territorial extensions by Russia.
On the ground, though, Russia also controls parts of additional Ukrainian regions such as Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk.
Yet, it has not achieved its aim of controlling all the Donbas region.
Will Ukraine cede territory to Russia?
Under the initial 28-point set of US proposals, Ukraine would be obliged to withdraw from heavily fortified parts of Donbas that it controls, Reuters has reported.
That's around 5,000 square km. This would be considered a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as Russian territory, as per the proposed peace plan.
Also under the proposals, Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be recognised as de facto Russian territories, including by the United States. Russian gains in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson up to the front line will also be recognised "de facto".
What are the counter-proposals from Ukraine's allies?
European powers that are allied with Ukraine saw the initial US draft as heavily pro-Russian.
An additional set of proposals was then discussed by US and Ukrainian officials, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks in Florida had "refined" a framework developed in Geneva.
In simpler terms, Zelensky as acknowledged that some Russian-occupied territories might be recognised as “de facto” Russia-held but has ruled out any formal recognition. He says he has no mandate to cede territory. He has urged Kyiv's Western allies not to “reward” Russia over its war in Ukraine.
What about Ukraine's NATO dream?
Besides territory, one of Putin's central demands for ending the war is that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging the US-led military alliance NATO eastwards. This means no entry for Ukraine.
Russian officials said they got an an assurance on this back in 1990 too.
Thus, the initial US peace proposals included a clause that NATO will not expand further; that Ukraine would enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and that NATO would include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
The European counter-proposal significantly changes the NATO clauses outlined in the US draft — it says that Ukraine's NATO membership would depend on consensus among NATO members.
That means US can veto Ukraine's entry. But Trump wants it permanently enshrined. He has said that previous US support for Ukraine's NATO membership bid was a cause of the war.
NATO leaders had agreed in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would one day become members. Ukraine's parliament in 2018 voted to enshrine the goal of joining NATO in its constitution.
