Where Trump Sees Deals, Russia and China See a Chance to Disrupt U.S. Alliances

Russia and China have played to the president’s dealmaking, rattling American security partners.

U.S. adversaries are using President Trump’s eagerness to strike deals as a chance to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its allies and undermine the Washington-led security order that has for years held them in check.

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One (REUTERS)

In Europe, Russia is seeking to exploit Trump’s desire to halt the war in Ukraine and strike business deals with Moscow by shaping a peace plan that meets many of its strategic objectives, including winning chunks of Ukrainian territory and closing off any hope Kyiv had of joining NATO.

In Asia, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is attempting to steer Trump toward abandoning Taiwan in exchange for an expansive U.S.-China trade accord, a key Trump goal. China claims the self-ruled island as its own and hasn’t ruled out taking it by force.

Trump on Tuesday advised Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a close ally, not to provoke Beijing over Taiwan, The Wall Street Journal reported, as he works toward a trade deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Takaichi’s office denied Trump made such a remark.

A leaked conversation between White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Russian official further underscored the extent to which the Trump administration has opened the door to dealmaking.

“The president will give me a lot of space and discretion to get to the deal,” Witkoff told Yuri Ushakov, a top aide to President Vladimir Putin, about a potential Ukraine peace deal, according to a transcript of the call published by Bloomberg News.

Moscow and Beijing see opportunity in Trump’s single-minded focus on striking short-term bargains for both capitals to advance long-held goals, analysts say.

“There is certainly a sense that this is a moment to press their objectives, to undermine U.S. leadership in both Europe and Asia,” said Christopher Johnstone, a partner at the Asia Group, a Washington, D.C.-based strategic advisory firm, who served in senior national security positions in multiple U.S. administrations. “They think they’ve figured him out.”

U.S. alliances are fraying as a result.

European governments and Kyiv’s supporters in Congress were taken aback last week by a 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine that appeared to reflect many of Russia’s objectives. The plan was drawn up by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with input from Kremlin confidante Kirill Dmitriev.

The Kremlin didn’t formally endorse the plan but has said it could form the basis for talks. In addition to limiting Kyiv’s military and blocking NATO membership, it called for Ukraine’s withdrawal from the eastern Ukrainian region of the Donbas that Russia hasn’t been able to take in nearly four years of war.

“An aggressor like Russia must not be rewarded for its aggression. Otherwise, it will spread,” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Tuesday in Berlin, calling for territory to be divided along the current front lines.

“Even if the fighting were to stop now, what remains is an imperial and aggressive Russia whose ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine,” he said.

Trump spoke positively about NATO this summer after allies agreed to more than double military spending. But Europeans see his actions since then—notably his Alaska summit with Putin in August—as undermining the deterrence and cohesion of an alliance that the U.S. created in 1949 and led in the decades since.

Europeans have striven this year to maintain U.S. backing for Ukraine—or at least blunt a reduction in U.S. support. European national security advisers met with Ukrainian officials and members of the Trump administration in Geneva this week to reshape the plan. Afterward, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the talks productive, and the 19-point plan that emerged appeared to be more acceptable to Ukraine.

The White House has said it remains committed to NATO and is playing the role of mediator between Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the war.

But the latest developments in the peace talks have underscored European fears that the Trump administration sees its interests and those of the alliance diverging.

“I think it’s one more episode in that painful series of kind of American disengagements—not ground disengagement but I would say heart-and-mind disengagement from Europe,” said Fabrice Pothier, a former NATO director of policy planning now at Rasmussen Global political think tank.

Europeans are now confronting deepening questions about the future of the alliance. Retired Gen. Sir Richard Barrons, who recently led the U.K.’s strategic defense review to set out priorities for rearming, said his message to Washington would be: “We know you are going to do less in Europe, but would you please make it a managed exit rather than a cliff edge?”

U.S. and Philippine troops took part in joint military exercises this year in the Philippines.

Meanwhile, U.S. allies in Asia are questioning the commitment of U.S. forces to the defense of Taiwan and the wider region, where China’s economic clout is matched by a growing assertiveness in pushing territorial claims and expanding its military reach.

Only weeks ago Trump was lauding new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as one of the country’s greatest leaders aboard the aircraft carrier USS George Washington at an American naval base in Japan.

On Tuesday, Trump phoned Takaichi and advised her to temper her comments around the Taiwan issue, The Wall Street Journal reported, as the president doesn’t want friction over Taiwan to endanger a detente reached last month with Xi. Relations between Tokyo and Beijing nosedived in recent weeks following Takaichi’s remark Nov. 7 that a blockade or invasion of Taiwan by China would risk pulling Japan into a conflict alongside the U.S. were Washington to come to the island’s defense.

But Tokyo still hasn’t had any public expression of support from the White House amid a sustained campaign of economic and diplomatic protest by China over a remark she made in parliament Nov. 7 that a blockade or invasion of Taiwan by China would risk pulling Japan into a conflict alongside the U.S. were Washington to come to the island’s defense.

China reacted with fury, urging Chinese travelers to avoid Japan, canceling cultural events and protesting at the United Nations. State media likened Takaichi to the Japanese militarists who led the country into World War II.

The U.S. ambassador to Japan and the State Department have voiced their backing for the U.S.-Japan alliance. Trump told reporters this week that he had a great talk with Takaichi and reiterated that he thinks she will be a great leader.

Xi spoke with Trump by phone Monday and stressed the importance to Beijing of uniting Taiwan and China, according to Chinese state media. Trump didn’t mention Taiwan when he posted a message on social media following the call, instead lauding Xi and saying relations between China and the U.S. are “extremely strong.”

Trump said he had accepted Xi’s invitation to visit Beijing in April, adding that Xi would visit the U.S. later next year.

Chinese experts say Beijing will likely feel encouraged by the call with Xi and Trump’s subsequent call with Takaichi, interpreting them as an indication of Trump’s desire to keep up the recent momentum in U.S.-China relations and ensure the chance of a trade deal stays high.

“He doesn’t want the Taiwan issue to become a problem for China-U. S. relations,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University.

Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com, Chun Han Wong at chunhan.wong@wsj.com and Bertrand Benoit at bertrand.benoit@wsj.com