Data predicts India to exert more pain for Pakistan, Suryakumar Yadav’s team expected to hand a hammering

India and Pakistan clash again in Asia Cup 2025 Super Four, with crucial implications for the final.

The biggest rivals of the cricketing universe, India and Pakistan, are all set to face each other for the second time in a span of eight days. The Dubai International Cricket Stadium is all set to host this important clash, as the Super Four stage of the Asia Cup 2025 gets on the way for these two teams. This clash carries greater significance than the previous meeting of the two as the winner moves closer to the final.

India vs Pakistan in Asia Cup 2025(AFP)

The advantage of chasing in Dubai

The evidence from this tournament suggests that it would be an added advantage to bat second at the venue.

Dubai chasing record in Asia Cup 2025

Outcome	Matches	Win Rate
Chasing team wins	4	67%
Defending team wins	2	33%

India’s dominant 7-wicket win over Pakistan on September 14 is an example of the trend, when they successfully chased down the modest target of 127 set by Pakistan with 25 balls to spare.

The venue has been a chasing-friendly track in the recent past, and Pakistan’s decision to bat first, even after winning the toss in the previous clash, backfired for them. The two teams will be wary of what has been transpiring at the venue in the recent games and decide accordingly after the toss, a step that could be crucial in deciding the fate of the fixture.

India depending on their spinners again

Bowler	Wickets	Expected Role
Kuldeep Yadav	8	Primary strike bowler
Axar Patel	3	Supporting role
Varun Chakravarthy	2	Pressure building with his mystery

Prediction: India’s three-spinner strategy is expected to be back once more. If Pakistan are batting first, we can expect the Kuldeep-Varun-Axar trio to be dominating and probably restricting the opposition to around 140 again.

On the other hand, if India bat first, they would look to score around 180-190 and bat Pakistan out of the match. Then it will be handed over to the triumvirate to complete the rest of the task.

The crisis of Pakistan's batting order

Pakistan’s batting frailties, particularly at the top of the order, if not solved, foreshadow another low-scoring performance.

Prediction: Pakistan might look to bring about some changes in the batting line-up. We could see Fakhar Zaman opening with either Farhan or Ayub, while the other goes down a spot. However, the success of the batting line-up depends on three things -

• Fakhar Zaman playing the main role
• Resilience from the Pakistan middle order against Indian spinners
• Someone like Mohammad Haris, Saim Ayub, or Hasan Nawaz playing a cameo to provide impetus to the team’s progress

Match Outcome Probability Assessment

Based on current form and venue history:

If India bat second:

• India win probability: 75-80%
• Target likely around 140 if Pakistan do not work on their batting flaws
• India’s strong middle-order, boosted by a strong start from Abhishek Sharma and Shubman Gill, should chase down the target comfortably

If Pakistan bat second:

• India win probability: 65-70%
• Pakistan lack chasing experience at Dubai in this tournament. In fact, the two targets that have been defended at this venue in the Asia Cup 2025 have both been done by Pakistan
• India have shown that their bowling arsenal has variety and great depth, and this would give them the edge for any target they set above 150

India vs Pakistan: Final Score Prediction

Pakistan batting first

First innings score: 135-145 (20 Overs)

India chasing in 17-18 overs

India batting first

First innings score: 175-185 (20 Overs)

Pakistan getting restricted to 150 at the most

Conclusion

All data points point toward a comfortable India win once more. However, this is a Super Four game; Pakistan, having already faced the Indian team, is aware of the opposition's strengths and weaknesses, so there is a chance that they will put up a better fight in this case. But the fact that they need to put on a better show with the bat and need to score at least 160 runs does not change.