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Haris Rauf, India's unofficial 12th man? Data reveals how he gifted the Asia Cup 2025 Final to ‘Men in Blue’
India won the Asia Cup 2025 T20I final, claiming their ninth title. Despite a shaky start, key overs from Haris Rauf allowed India to secure victory.
India edged out one of the best thrillers in the history of T20I cricket to win the final of the Asia Cup 2025 and pocket the ninth title. The win for the Men in Blue was a slow burn, but it particularly hinged on two Haris Rauf overs that bent the chase.
After the first innings of the game, Pakistan’s 147 looked 10-15 short, but early Indian wickets reopened the door for them. The match swung like a pendulum and Rauf’s generosity in the 15th and 18th overs were the turning gears.
Our analysis model
We have used a first-innings anchored, phase-aware win probability (WP) estimate. Because 146 was below par, India started the chase with a near 70% WP. From there on, the WP gets updated every over using
- Required run rate vs phase par
- Wickets in hand
- Penalty for clustered wickets
Pakistan’s platform and then plunge
Sahibzada Farhan and Fakhar Zaman established a brilliant platform for the team. With the duo cruising, Pakistan had 98 runs on the board for the loss of one wicket at the end of the 11th over. After two more overs, they were at 113 for the loss of 2 with seven overs still to go.
However, the Indian team turned the tables around from here. Pakistan managed to score only 18 runs in the last four overs losing six wickets. They were bundled out for just 146, resulting in India’s sharp rise in WP and starting the chase at around 70%.
India’s Chase
The early wobble
Faheem Ashraf and Shaheen Afridi shredded the dangerous top-order of India, reducing them to 20/3 after the first four overs. By the end of the powerplay, India managed to reach 36 without further damage. The WP at this stage was in the 30s, not terminal, but the Men in Blue were in a desperate need of a partnership.
This is when Sanu Samson got along with Tilak Varma and stabilized the ship for the team. Their progress was slow but steady, keeping India in the hunt all along. The departure of Samson and the arrival of Shivam Dube preceded the two vital overs that completely skewed the game in favour of India.
Rauf’s kindhearted 15th over
State before the over
India’s score: 83/4
Equation to win: 64 runs off 36 balls at the required rate of 10.66
State after the over
India’s score: 100/4
Equation to win: 47 off 30 balls at the required rate of 9.4
Swing in WP: nearly 20% in favor of India
Why it mattered: This particular over dragged the ask below 50 with five overs left on a slowish surface, settling the nerve of the Indian batters and allowing them to plan the rest of the chase perfectly
Rauf’s gift in the 18th over
State before the over
India’s score: 117/4
Equation to win: 30 runs off 18 balls at the required rate of 10
State after the over
India’s score: 130/4
Equation to win: 17 runs off 12 balls at the required rate of 8.5
Swing in WP: nearly 25% in favor of India
Why it mattered: This over more or less ensured the win for India. Even after two precious non scoring balls at the end of the 19th over did not swing the game hugely in favor of Pakistan. Haris Rauf arrived in the last over once more and India closed the game with two balls remaining.
The two overs that wrote the whole story
Two Rauf overs in the final told the whole story. The 15th cracked the chase open and the 18th nearly closed it for India. Between those two spikes, the Indian batters showed remarkable composure to stay in the game and wait for their opportunity. In a final where the balance kept swinging randomly, India timed their blows brilliantly and then owned the night.
