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'Not doing a favour': Experts say increased tariffs will hurt US more than India after Trump's fresh threat
Indian trader say the US market’s dependence on Indian rice is demand-driven, reflecting the product's essential nature in the consumer basket.
US President Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose higher tariffs on rice imports, including those from India, is not expected to significantly affect Indian rice exports, particularly basmati, as per rice exporters. Indian traders have strongly criticised Trump’s comments, emphasising that any increase in tariffs would primarily burden American consumers rather than impact Indian exporters.
Industry experts note that demand for Indian rice in the US is driven by consumer preferences, highlighting its indispensable role in the American market.
Dev Garg, vice president of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation, said that Indian rice exports to the United States are “entirely demand-driven” and continue to grow as Indian and South Asian cuisines gain popularity across America. “The US market’s rice imports are entirely demand-driven. Indian rice has a distinct flavour, texture and colour palette, and American-grown rice is not a like-for-like substitute,” he said, speaking to ANI news agency.
He explained that Indian rice offers a “distinct flavour, texture and colour profile” that American rice varieties cannot replicate. “The American-grown rice is not a like-for-like substitute for Indian rice,” he said, adding that India is not “dumping” rice in the US market.
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Garg emphasised that rising tariffs imposed by Washington have not reduced demand but have instead raised costs for American consumers. “All the tariff hike has been borne by the US consumer, who has faced the brunt of price increases, contributing to domestic food inflation,” he noted.
'US not doing a favour'
He added that any further tariff escalation would impact the United States far more than India. “It is not a favour that the US consumer is doing for India, but a requirement of the US market,” he said, stressing that the demand for Indian rice remains “robust and resilient.”
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"So any steep increase or any further increase in US tariffs will be detrimental to the US consumer itself and will have minimal impact on Indian trade," he said.
Experts also noted that US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on Indian rice, appears to be aimed at domestic political audiences rather than signalling any major policy shift.
The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), an Indian trade think tank, said the comments made on 8 December, alongside a new farm relief package in the United States, were likely intended to reassure American farmers during an election period.
The think tank stated, "Trump threatens to impose high tariffs on Indian rice. But the threat is politics, not policy."
GTRI observed that even if the US were to introduce fresh duties, the overall effect on Indian exporters would remain limited, as global demand for Indian rice continues to be strong. The think tank added that American households depending on Indian rice varieties would be the ones most affected, with higher prices likely in the US retail market.
According to IREF, during the financial year 2024-2025, India exported Basmati rice worth USD 337.10 million, totaling 274,213.14 metric tonnes (MT), making the US the 4th largest market for Indian basmati. In the same period, India exported non-basmati rice valued at USD 54.64 million, amounting to 61,341.54 MT, making the US the 24th largest market for non-basmati rice.
(With ANI inputs)
