Tipping points approaching fast, warming rising beyond earlier estimates: UNEP report

The global average temperature increase is likely to surpass 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels in the early 2030s and 2 degree C in the 2040s

The United Nations Environment Programme’s Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7) has warned that the earth’s climate has entered uncharted territory while stating that several tipping points could occur in the next few years to decades.

The GEO7 was released during the seventh session of the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi. (File Reuters photo)

These tipping points include shifts in intensity and timing of monsoons, loss of Arctic sea ice which is likely to alter the jet stream, change the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events; abrupt thaw of permafrost likely to result in a substantial release of methane within a few years; the coral die-off is already underway and a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which could lead to rapid shifts in the climate in Europe and Africa.

The GEO7 released during the seventh session of the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi, drafted by 287 multi-disciplinary scientists from 82 countries, has also said recent high levels of warming and observed increases in the rate of warming suggest that the central estimates of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) climate projections may be underestimating the magnitude of human-induced global warming, with dire consequences for human well-being and nature.

The global average temperature increase is likely to surpass 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels in the early 2030s and 2 degree C in the 2040s. Globally, the cost of extreme weather events attributed to climate change over the last 20 years is estimated at US$143 billion annually, the report has said.

Between 20% and 40% of land area worldwide is estimated to be degraded, affecting over three billion people, while one million of an estimated eight million species are threatened with extinction. Around 9 million deaths are attributable annually to some form of pollution.

“The economic cost of health damages from air pollution alone was about US$8.1 trillion in 2019 – or around 6.1% of global GDP. The state of the environment will dramatically worsen if the world continues to power economies under a business-as-usual pathway. Without action, global mean temperature rise is likely to exceed 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels in the early 2030s, exceed 2.0 degree C by the 2040s and keep climbing. On this path, climate change would cut 4% off annual global GDP by 2050 and 20% by the end of the century,” the report said.

Loss of Arctic sea ice will alter the jet stream, changing the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Complete collapse of the West Antarctic and melting of the Greenland ice sheets would lead to more than 10 metres of sea level rise, while tipping points in the ocean and atmospheric circulations could occur within years to decades and include shifts in intensity and timing of monsoons, the report said.

Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would result in expansion of Arctic Sea ice, a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, increased ice melt in Antarctica, and rapid shifts in European and African climate, it added.

AMOC circulates water from north to south and back in a long cycle within the Atlantic Ocean. It brings warmth to various parts of the globe and also carries nutrients necessary to sustain ocean life.

The monsoons are increasingly influenced by concentrations of PM2.5 in the

atmosphere, greenhouse gas emissions, and land-use change, which significantly alter their timing and intensity.

“A substantial increase in rainfall intensity may lead to an expansion of vegetation in the Sahel and Saharan regions. However, this same weather pattern could push the desert into the African Mediterranean (Maghreb) region. In South-East Asia, 2 degree C of warming could increase monsoon rainfall intensity by 10%. These shifts would have negative socioeconomic consequences for regions dependent on rain-fed agricultural production or those with low adaptive capacity, and pose challenges for water resource management,” the report has warned.

“Migration of people in India as coping strategy to changing climate”

Especially for the Indian region, GEO7 has flagged migration of people as a coping strategy to changing climate. In 2022, the whole Asia Pacific region experienced 140 disasters, resulting in 7,500 deaths and affecting over 64 million people. Climate change significantly influences migration patterns in the region, particularly in the Indian subcontinent, where heatwaves and droughts have driven people from rural areas to cities as a coping strategy, it said.

“The weakening of AMOC is associated with enhanced heat and freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic resulting in the reduction of northward oceanic heat transport and an enhanced northward atmospheric heat transport. Changes in AMOC will lead to weakening of large-scale north–south temperature gradient and regional land-sea thermal gradient, which in turn weaken the regional Hadley circulation and, monsoon circulation over the South Asian region,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, earth sciences and climate scientist.

However, GEO7 concludes that whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches to transform the systems of economy and finance, materials and waste, energy, food and the environment would deliver global macroeconomic benefits that could reach US$20 trillion per year by 2070 and continue growing. A key enabling factor of this approach is moving away from GDP to indicators that also track human and natural capital – incentivizing economies to move towards circularity, decarbonization of the energy system, sustainable agriculture, ecosystem restoration and more.

“The Global Environment Outlook lays out a simple choice for humanity: continue down the road to a future devastated by climate change, dwindling nature, degraded land and polluted air, or change direction to secure a healthy planet, healthy people and healthy economies. This is no choice at all,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director in a statement.

“And let us not forget the world has already made so much progress: from global deals covering climate change, nature, land and biodiversity, and pollution and waste, to real-world change in the booming renewables industry, global coverage of protected areas, and the phasing out of toxic chemicals,” she added.