‘51st state’ fear back in Canada after Trump's Venezuela raid, Greenland threat: ‘Real risk of military coercion’

Earlier this week, Carney remarked that sovereignty of Greenland, Denmark should be respected, however, he made no mention of Trump’s past threats to Canada.

After United States President Donald Trump’s military action on Venezuela — in which American forces “captured” the country’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife to put them on trial in New York — and his continued threats to Denmark over Greenland, Trump’s past remarks on his desire to annex Canada have made a fear-inducing comeback in the country.

What might bring back Trump’s attention to Canada is the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement which was signed during his first term and a review of which is scheduled to be started.(AP)

Among viral arguments around Trump's threat to “make Canada the 51st state of the US”, is a column published in Canadian news outlet The Globe and Mail earlier this week. The authors have written, “Canadians must acknowledge the real risk that Mr. Trump will use military coercion against our country.”

One of the authors of the column and a Canadian academic Thomas Homer-Dixon also said, “It’s all about changing the calculus.”

“If there is an attempt to use military coercion against us, it needs to be clear that it’s going to be enormously costly,” he added, as per a Bloomberg report.

Why does Canada need to worry?

Trump’s recent actions in Venezuela and threats to Greenland put Canada in a particularly risky situation, given that it shares several common traits with Greenland, such as being a democracy, being situated in the Arctic and being a part of security grouping NATO that Trump seeks to dominate.

“I think many officials in Ottawa just find it hard to believe that we’re in this space, no matter what the evidence is,” said Wesley Wark, a former adviser to the Canadian government on security and border issues.

He also called Trump’s actions on Venezuela and Greenland as “final wake-up calls for Canada that will underscore the reality that the United States is not the country that it used to be".

Carney’s cautious diplomacy

Even though PM Mark Carney came to power in Canada last year by making promises to stand up to Trump, he has since shifted his efforts more towards enhancing trade ties with China in order to reduce the country’s reliance on the US.

Earlier this week, Carney remarked that the sovereignty of Greenland and Denmark should be respected; however, he made no mention of Trump’s past threats to Canada.

According to some experts, while a military action by the US on Canada seems a stretch, it could come for its northern neighbour's economy.

“I do believe — now more than ever — that the United States is willing to cripple the Canadian economy in ways that suit the president’s whims,” Bloomberg quoted Stephanie Carvin, associate professor at Carleton University and former national security analyst for the Canadian government, as saying.

After Trump asserted dominance over Venezuela’s oil reserves, she added, “The US president now will be much more willing to engage in adventurism in a quest to dominate the Western Hemisphere.”

Another possible scenario, according to Philippe Lagassé, an associate professor at Carleton, would be if Canada depends on the US for a situation that it can not handle on its own, such as a natural disaster or a threat to Canada’s electrical supplies to the US.

Lagassé said that, in such a case, the US under the current administration may help Canada and may choose to not leave later, or may even make demands in exchange, according to the report.

“What can Canada do to forestall the possibility of the United States arguing that it needs to intervene in Canada for its own security?” he asked.

The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement

What might also bring back Trump’s attention to Canada is the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement which was signed during his first term — a review of which is scheduled to be started.

During the review, the US could potentially pressure Canada economically, particularly given that currently Canada depends on its southern neighbour for 70% of its exports.

Under the current deal, a large portion of the Canada-US trade, some 85 per cent of it, is free of tariffs. However, a simple threat from Trump to take away the exemption could mean havoc for Canada.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)